Seth Stephens-Davidowitz estimates that “racial animus in the United States appears to have cost Obama roughly four percentage points of the national popular vote in both 2008 and 2012.” Bouie wonders what this might mean for 2016:
If this is correct, and Obama underperformed by roughly four points in 2008 and 2012, then there’s a chance that the Democratic brand is stronger than we think. We’ll see in 2016, but a “threepeat” for the Democratic Party might be more likely than we think, given the potentially wider support for a white Democratic nominee for president.
Stephens-Davidowitz’ paper is here.
H/t to Andrew Sullivan.