Study: Racial animus cost Barack Obama 4 points in both 2008 and 2012

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Seth Stephens-Davidowitz estimates  that “racial animus in the United States appears to have cost Obama roughly four percentage points of the national popular vote in both 2008 and 2012.” Bouie wonders what this might mean for 2016:

If this is correct, and Obama underperformed by roughly four points in 2008 and 2012, then there’s a chance that the Democratic brand is stronger than we think. We’ll see in 2016, but a “threepeat” for the Democratic Party might be more likely than we think, given the potentially wider support for a white Democratic nominee for president.

Stephens-Davidowitz’ paper is here.

H/t to Andrew Sullivan.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.