Study: Rubio, Bush or Ryan could win over 40% of Latino vote in 2016

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For some, the presidential race is in the far-off future. However, that hasn’t prevented from examining ways Republican contenders can get a bigger share of the Latino vote in 2016. The success of the GOP in the next presidential race could hinge on the fallout from the current debate on immigration reform.

According to a report on the Latino politics website, Republicans must take “strong leadership” in passing congressional immigration reform. That is, if possible GOP candidates like Sen. Marco Rubio, former Gov. Jeb Bush and last year’s vice-presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan wants any chance of attracting enough Latino voters to win the general election.  

If any of those GOP contenders distance themselves from the immigration bill, and the measure fails in the House, each could most likely see a rejection surpassing Mitt Romney’s historic defeat by Latino voters. In the 2012 race, President Obama won the Latino ballot by a margin of nearly 5 million votes.

In recent polling, Latinos say they are watching the immigration debate extremely carefully. Judging words and actions, especially Rubio’s, Latino GOP support will either succeed or fail based on approval of the immigration bill. If the bill passes, according to the June 20-29 study of 1,200 Latino presidential voters, Rubio, Bush or Ryan will have a chance to win over 40 percent of Latino vote.

That is the “magic number” Republicans want for a White House win in 2016.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.