A morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
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HAPPY VALENTINE’S DAY!
The story goes that the Roman Emperor Claudius II imposed a ban on marriages in order to boost his army. Only single men had to enter the army, and too many men were dodging the draft by getting married. Valentinus, though, in an effort to protect the sacramentality of Christian marriage, performed secret marriages, and when he got caught he was sentenced to death. While he awaited execution, he was showered with notes from young couples extolling the virtues of love over war. (Looks like John Lennon didn’t invent the slogan “Make love not war” after all.) These notes, if they ever existed at all, were supposedly the first Valentines. Poor old Valentinus was executed in February 14th, 269, a bloody end for the saint of love.
I, of course, have two valentines: My wonderful wife, Michelle, and my happy, healthy and beautiful daughter, Ella. I love you both.
For those of you in Tallahassee, the number for florist Elinor Doyle is (850) 222-1298.
WHAT DO MOST AMERICANS WANT THIS V-DAY? DINNER WITH SOMEONE SPECIAL, POLL SAYS
Most adults aren’t planning to send or receive flowers this Valentine’s Day, which may be good, since most want something else anyway.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 66% of American adults want dinner with someone special for Valentine’s Day. Just seven percent (7%) want flowers, and just eight percent (8%) want chocolate candy most. Nineteen percent (19%) are not sure what they want.
Just 11% expect to receive any flowers for Valentine’s Day. Only slightly more (16%) plan to send somebody flowers.
Thirty-one percent (31%) will, indeed, go out for a special Valentine’s Day meal. Ten percent (10%) will go away with someone special for the holiday.
Fifty-two percent (52%), however, will send a Valentine’s Day card to someone this year. Forty-one percent (41%) won’t. Of those that will send a card, 86% will send a traditional greeting card, while only seven percent (7%) will send an e-card.
Overall, these figures are relatively unchanged from the past few years.
Now, on to politics …
JOE SCARBOROUGH WON’T RULE OUT 2016 via Dylan Byers of POLITICO
MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said Thursday that he hasn’t closed the door on a 2016 presidential bid.
Asked by radio host Hugh Hewitt if he had ruled out running for president, Scarborough said he “won’t rule anything out” and later added, “we’ll see what happens.”
“No, I won’t rule anything out. I’ve always said and I’ve always been open about the fact that the greatest job I ever had and the greatest honor I’ve ever had was being in the House of Representatives,” the former Florida congressman said. “It was an absolute thrill and I had to get out because I had young children to raise and I wanted to be back home in Pensacola. No, I’ve always said I wanted to get back in. It’s just a matter of time. We’ll see what happens.”
Though Scarborough has floated the idea before, his name wasn’t on anyone’s shortlist until Bill Kristol, the founder of The Weekly Standard, dropped his name in a recent survey for POLITICO Magazine.
Few took Kristol’s suggestion seriously — “Scarborough will get a kick out of being on the list, but almost certainly won’t pull on the snow boots for a trip to Iowa or New Hampshire,” the magazine’s editors wrote — except for The Daily Caller, which cited “sources” who said it was “widely believed at MSNBC” that Scarborough was “mulling a presidential bid.”
EMAIL I HAD TO READ: “Ted Cruz Event – 1,200 RSVPs & Counting” via The Sarasota Republican Party
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BOTH GRAHAMS — BOB AND GWEN — JOIN FORCES FOR CD2 RACE Full blog post here
Democrat Gwen Graham, in the race against Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Southerland, is using her most valuable ally — her father, former Florida governor and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham – in a series of high-profile fundraisers in the Tallahassee area.
The popular 77-year-old Democrat spoke of his daughter’s “brilliant political idea, one that surprisingly others have not adopted. … What do you call it, sweetheart?”
After his daughter whispered briefly in his ear, Graham continued, “Oh, yes. She calls it ‘work days.’ “
Anyone familiar with the senior Graham knows of the series of elections where he would take on jobs of ordinary Floridians, working eight-hour shifts busing tables, collecting garbage and driving trucks.
Now that she is a first-time candidate, Gwen Graham’s “Work Days” come straight out of her father’s winning playbook. For example, Graham spent Jan. 29 at a local construction project.
The Graham name holds a lot of weight in the district, but it is still a “wildcard” if that will actually translate into votes.
“She’s got a history of not having been in the district very long and supporting folks like John Kerry in the past, which is not going to connect with the demographics in the electorate there,” said Lenny Curry, chair of the Republican Party of Florida Lenny Curry in an interview.
Gwen Graham is “going to have to stand on her own,” Curry added.
MEANWHILE, IN CD 18, THE RETURN OF JENNIFER CARROLL via Marc Caputo of the Miami Herald
Jennifer Carroll, the one-time lieutenant governor forced from office amid a gambling scandal in which she was never really implicated, is hitting the campaign trail again — but not for herself.
Carroll is scheduled to be a featured speaker on Monday, Feb. 17 at a Stuart campaign kickoff for congressional candidate Carl Domino, her former Republican colleague in the state House.
Telegenic but prone to say some controversial things (e.g., “black women that look like me don’t engage” in lesbian sex), Carroll has maintained a respectful silence about Gov. Rick Scott’s chief of staff and top lawyer for essentially forcing her to resign as lieutenant governor after she was questioned about the Allied Veterans of the World gambling ring that masqueraded as a charity.
Carroll’s appearance as a draw in the CD-18 race is noteworthy as well because of her race. Florida Republicans are disproportionately white, yet she was the first African-American lieutenant governor and Domino is running in a crowded GOP primary against a black candidate, Calvin Turnquest. They’re challenging first-term Democrat Patrick Murphy, who narrowly defeated controversial U.S. Rep. Allen West, also African-American, by a mere 0.6 percentage points. President Obama lost the district by 1.1 percentage points.
This election, like other midterms, will likely lean more Republican. Carroll’s cameo aside, Murphy is in a dicey position — especially if he faces a black candidate like Turnquest, who isn’t as prone to off-the-cuff remarks as West and can probably draw some crossover votes in a district where almost 10 percent of the registered voters are African-American.
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CD 13 SPECIAL ELECTION
MUST-READ ASSESSMENT via POLITICO’s Aex Isenstadt
Unfolding in one of the few remaining competitive House districts, the contest has become a proxy battle among the national parties for bragging rights heading into the November midterm election. … Each passing day leading up to the March 11 election brings fresh evidence of how badly each side wants a win. Vice President Joe Biden went to Florida on Wednesday to raise money for [Democrat Alex] Sink – a rare foray by the White House into a single House election. Both national parties, plus an array of outside groups, have combined to spend an eye-popping $6 million on TV ads, a figure that’s poised to soar over the next four weeks.
Sen. Marco Rubio campaigned with [Republican David] Jolly on Monday, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is slated to fundraise for him on Friday. But the intense national interest also reflects a tightening race. At the outset, Sink, boosted by her high name ID and prodigious fundraising, was seen as the clear front-runner. But with recent polls showing the race closing, Democrats aren’t nearly as confident as they once were, and Republicans aren’t nearly as pessimistic.
ANOTHER GOOD READ ON CD 13 RACE via the Economist
Late last year Florida’s 13th congressional district—a sprawl of mobile-home parks, retirement villages and strip malls, fringed by Gulf coast beaches — lost its congressman, Bill Young. The Republican’s death, after 42 years of service, left a void. But in truth, the district had been in a form of mourning since 2010: a year that saw a ban on the “earmarks” that enabled Young to channel hundreds of millions of dollars to his district and state.
Young’s death triggered a special election to be held on March 11th. Pundits see the race as a trial run for campaign themes that will dominate November’s congressional elections. Sure enough, Democrats are busy pummelling the Republican candidate as a shill for special interests (he is a lobbyist, after years as an aide to Mr. Young). When not running ads calling him “Lobbyist David Jolly”, Democrats and allies call him an extremist, noting his opposition to abortion in most cases and stern views on immigration. Not to be outdone, Republicans and conservative groups are buying up millions of dollars of TV airtime, bashing his Democratic opponent as a backer of “Obama’s reckless agenda,” meaning above all Obamacare.
There is a logic to such hardball tactics. The 13th is that modern-day rarity, a swing district, whose voters elected Young 22 times but narrowly plumped for Barack Obama in his two presidential elections. Victory there would give either party bragging rights, though Democrats have more to lose after fielding a much better-known candidate
Yet it is underselling this special election to treat it merely as a rehearsal for November. Young’s fiefdom is interesting in its own right. The area has been sending Republicans to Congress since the 1950s, well before other bits of the state, notes Darryl Paulson of USF. The district is unusually elderly: voters aged 61 and over cast 40% of all ballots in the 2012 general election (nationally, that age-group cast 30% of all votes).
If the special election does not seem very uplifting, with its wildly entitled voters and pandering candidates, contemplate this: by 2030, much of America will be as old as Florida is today. If rational spending seems a hard sell now, just wait until more places vote like the Sunshine State.
POLLS COLLIDE IN NIP-AND-TUCK CD13 RACE via Kevin Derby of the Sunshine State News
Conflicting storylines dominate news of two new surveys in the special congressional election approaching in Pinellas County March 11.
A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF Public Media poll released late Wednesday night shows Sink out in front…
Sink takes 40 percent while Jolly holds 34 percent. Libertarian Lucas Overby takes 4 percent and 17 percent remain undecided. The remaining 5 percent refused to answer or said “other candidates.”
When undecideds were asked if they were leaning toward a certain candidate, Sink’s margin slightly increased, leading 42 percent to Jolly’s 35 percent. Overby remained at 4 percent while 14 percent were still undecided.
The poll does show President Barack Obama’s federal health-care law remains unpopular in the district, with 43 percent supporting it and 47 percent opposing it. Most of Sink’s supporters — 81 percent — fall in line behind their candidate in supporting the law. Most of Jolly’s backers — 84 percent — join him in opposing it.
Meanwhile, St. Pete Polls released a poll taken for SaintPetersBlog, which finds Jolly with a slight lead. Jolly leads with 46 percent while Sink is right behind him with 44 percent. Libertarian Lucas Overby pulls in 6 percent; 3 percent are still undecided.
When undecided voters were asked if they were leaning toward a candidate, Jolly’s lead increased slightly. In that scenario, Jolly took 47 percent followed by Sink with 44 percent, while Overby took 7 percent and 2 percent remained undecided.
CD 13 DRAWS BIG OUTSIDE PLAYERS, HUGE AD BUYS FROM BOTH SIDES Full blog post here
The special election for CD 13 has attracted widespread attention — and a lot of outside money — in “ad wars” for the March 11 race.
Political expenses — by groups not directly affiliated with either Sink or Jolly — are already at more than $3.2 million, according to Peter Olsen-Phillips of SunlightFoundation.com.
Benefiting the most from the majority latest latest money wave is Jolly. Pinellas County has become the epicenter of a series of media buys and TV spots, where more than $2.3 million was spent either explicitly supporting Jolly or opposing Sink.
Last-minute advertising has clearly leveled the playing field for Jolly, who was running behind Sink financially at the start of the shortened special election timeline. Not helping matters was the Republican’s extra spending to win the GOP primary, leaving him at one time behind Sink by as much as $1 million. Sink did not have a primary challenge.
On the other hand, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee invested $886,041 in ads attacking Jolly, with the progressive House Majority PAC vowing to introduce another $650,000. The latest 30-second spot focuses on Jolly’s lobbying for a special interest group that advocates privatizing Social Security.
According to Abby Livingston in Roll Call, Republican total spending on ads—between Jolly and outside GOP groups — now ranges between $2.35 million and $2.7 million. In contrast, Democrats spent $3.65 million to $3.75 million overall on advertising, by both Sink’s campaign and various party affiliated groups.
In the past week, Republicans spent $614,000 and Democrats about $545,000. In the week of Feb. 11-17, writes Livingston, airtime cost Republicans about $880,000 and Democrats $560,000.
ERIC CANTOR RAISING MONEY FOR JOLLY IN TAMPA ON FRIDAY
U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor will headline a fundraiser tonight in Tampa for Jolly, according to this invite via Alex Leary of the Tampa Bay Times. Other big names at the event include Mel Sembler and Rick Baker.
TWEET, TWEET: @davelevinthal: Filing: American Action Network hits Democrat @AlexSinkFlorida in #FL13 w/another $181,907 in negative TV ads.
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AT CAPITAL BOOK SIGNING, CRIST SAYS VETO PEN WOULD BE MIGHTER THAN GOP DISDAIN via John Kennedy of the Palm Beach Post
Questions from reporters had the ex-Republican-turned-Democrat theorizing about how he would lead in a state Legislature dominated by the GOP and where many from his former party detest him.
Asked how he’d work with the Legislature, Crist responded:
“I think very effectively,” Crist said. “One of the very first things I did when I was elected governor before was reach out to the other party… You reach out. You cooperate. You keep the conversation going. It’s amazing what good things can happen.”
Crist also shrugged off the depth of the hard feelings among Republicans. If elected, the governor gets the wield the power of his veto pen and that can change everything, he said.
“Well, if we’re fortunate enough to win, those difficult feelings have a way of warming,” Crist said. “Because, if you win, then you have a pen. And that can warm their feelings.”
WIN OR LOSE, RICK SCOTT’S FUNDRAISER HAVING A BIG-MONEY CYCLE via Matt Dixon of the Florida Times-Union
Even if Gov. Scott loses in November, there will be a silver lining for his top fundraiser.
Forward Strategies , a political fundraising firm founded by Meredith O’Rourke, has brought in nearly $1.6 million with more than eight months left in the 2014 election cycle. It’s an exceptionally large hall, and already the firm’s best cycle by a wide-margin. O’Rourke did not return requests for comment.
More than 90 percent of the work has been for Let’s Get to Work, a committee supporting Gov. Rick Scott’s reelection. The committee can coordinate with Scott’s official campaign, which did not return requests seeking comment. The remaining money came from the Republican Party of Florida.
So far, O’Rourke has gotten the job done.
Though it’s easier for an incumbent governor to raise money, Let’s Get to Work has been bringing in campaign cash at an unprecedented pace. The committee has raised nearly $27 million this cycle.
PIC DU JOUR: Gov. Scott honoring firefighter Jordan Caldwell. See here. In the early morning of June 14, firefighter Caldwell, along with his partner, responded to a residential fire and discovered a wood framed house surrounded by heavy smoke. Upon arrival, a neighbor told them that Sherri Stewart was trapped by the fire inside the home. Caldwell immediately entered the burning home without the protection of a hoseline, and began searching for Stewart. While being blinded by the smoke, Caldwell was able to find Stewart and pull her away from the fire. Caldwell provided medical assistance to resuscitate Stewart from her smoke inhalation while waiting for paramedics to arrive.
TWEET, TWEET: @FloridaGOP: It’s a bad law. But this guy loves it! pic.twitter.com/VvRxojCmrZ
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NEW POLL SHOWS VOTER SUPPORT FOR DESTINATION CASINOS
There are some surprising new polling numbers on the gaming issue in a survey just in from the field. The poll, shared exclusively with SaintPetersblog/Sunburn, was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies earlier this week for a statewide association. The poll examined many of the issues that could be part of the upcoming legislative session, as well as potential ballot initiatives that voters will decide this fall.
The numbers that really stick out in this new poll revolve around gambling. The new numbers show that voters approve by a healthy majority the development of up to three destinations resort casinos in Broward or Miami-Dade counties — a very clear indication that voters statewide support the destination resort casino concept for South Florida.
The poll also gives more evidence that legislative leadership is in sync with the public on a couple of the other key points in the gaming debate in Tallahassee.
Speaker Will Weatherford has made it clear that any future expansion of gambling must be tied to voter approval through a statewide ballot amendment – this new poll shows voters clearly agree with Weatherford. In fact, the new numbers show that over 70% of poll respondents support the concept of a statewide referendum on future gaming expansion.
And incoming Senate President Andy Gardiner has been clear and consistent stressing the need for the establishment of a Florida State Gaming Commission WITH TEETH that would oversee and regulate all functions of gaming in Florida. Gardner, too has the support of Florida voters, with the gaming commission concept also showing over 70% support in this new poll.
The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on February 9-11. It was of likely Florida voters and a has a margin of error of +/- 4.%.
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REP. MARK PAFFORD NAMED CEO OF MARSHALL FOUNDATION FOR THE EVERGLADES via Christine Stapleton of the Palm Beach Post
The Arthur R. Marshall Foundation for The Everglades has selected state Rep. Mark S. Pafford as its Chief Executive Officer.
Pafford expects to begin the full-time position with the foundation this spring. He does not expect there will be a conflict of interest between his position with the foundation and his duties as an elected official but has asked for a legal opinion to remove any doubt.
Early in his career, Pafford worked as a naturalist with the Metro-Dade Parks Department at Arch Creek Park in North Miami.
After working more than 20 years of working in community based non-profit organizations, including the CEO of the Alzheimer’s Association Southeast Florida Chapter, he was elected to the Florida House, unopposed, in 2008. He is now serving his third term.
Pafford will lead a team of professional environmental educators and Everglades science experts in programs including the Foundation’s Everglades canoe expedition, college summer intern program and the 2014 Sea Level Rise Symposium.
IS TALLAHASSEE ON THE VERGE OF ITS FIRST $10 MILLION FIRM? Full blog post here
Lobbying firm compensation reports for the fourth quarter are due no later than today. As the reports roll in, an interesting question has arisen: Is Tallahassee on the verge of it first $10 million lobbying firm?
At the end of 2012, the top two firms in the state — Ballard Partners and Southern Strategy Group – each reported compensation in excess of $8 million, according to Florida Trend. Through 2013, both firms have seen their earnings increase dramatically.
For example, in 2012, Southern Strategy Group rang in $2.54 million in lobbying fees during the second quarter. Fast-forward a year and add nearly $1 million to that figure for a total of $3.41 million in quarterly compensation. If you calculate fees based on the top end of the ranges, Southern Strategy Group billed as much as $4.61 million in the second quarter.
While it did not see the same 33% year-over-year growth it realized in the second quarter of 2013, SSG did see revenues increase in the first and third quarters.
Since SSG was already at the $8 million mark in 2012, basic math indicates it will be near the $10 million mark for 2013. Likewise for Ballard Partners, which also has seen explosive growth in revenues throughout 2013. The firm headed by Brian Ballard also earned more than $4 million during the second quarter of 2013 (when the Legislature is in session) and saw year-over-year growth during the first and third quarters of 2013.
LONGTIME TALLAHASSEE LOBBYIST BARRY HORENBEIN, 80, HAS DIED via Steve Bousquet of the Tampa Bay Times
Barry Horenbein, a lobbyist who worked the Capitol for decades and was a colorful throwback to an earlier and simpler time, died peacefully Thursday at his home in Tallahassee. He was 80 and had battled esophageal cancer for the past two years.
Raised on Miami Beach, Horenbein first hung out his lobbying shingle in Tallahassee in 1962. The company was called Florida Consultants Inc., and Farris Bryant was governor.
Horenbein was known for his advocacy on behalf of the pari-mutuel industry, the Seminole Tribe of Florida and the 3M Corp., as well as his close friendship with the late Senate President Jim King of Jacksonville. He was an All-Conference baseball player at the University of Florida and had a brief professional baseball career with the Baltimore Orioles.
His career spanned 52 years, enough time to include nine governors, 22 House speakers and 23 Senate presidents. Lobbying in those days was a mixture of advocacy, salesmanship and public relations.
“My first client was Hillsborough Printing Company out of Tampa,” Horenbein said in a 1990 oral history with UF, his alma mater. “I was just getting them business out of the state of Florida, more or less kind of like a salesman. I guess my first fairly big client was, the city of Miami Beach hired me. I’m sorry, it was not the city of Miami Beach, it was the Deauville Hotel. The city of Miami Beach was awarded the national governors’ conference and all of the hotels were competing against each other for the main function. The Deauville Hotel hired me.”
The Horenbein family asks that in lieu of flowers, donations be made to the Barry Horenbein Memorial Fund at the Leon County Animal Shelter. Funeral arrangements are pending at Culley’s MeadowWood Funeral Home in Tallahassee.
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CONTEXT FLORIDA: COURT PACKING, POPE FRANCIS, E-CIGARETTES AND SCHOOL CHOICE
On Context Florida: In the search for members for judicial nominating panels, Gov. Rick Scott appears to be trying to load the courts with compliant judges, says Martin Dyckman. Pope Francis, may represent the hopes of the left, writes Cary McMullen, but as refreshingly open-minded as he is, it’s “too much to expect that he will remake the worldwide Catholic Church into one big hippie commune.” E-cigarettes have come under fire lately, says Jaimie Miller, with groups like the World Health Organization wondering if they actually help people quit smoking. The Florida educational landscape is changing radically, writes Duval County School Board member Jason Fischer, and lawmakers face a challenge; to make sure all available options — including school choice, open enrollment, magnet schools, career academies, online courses, dual enrollment, and scholarships for disabled and low-income students — are helping students to succeed.
Visit Context Florida to dig in.
HOUSE OF CARDS SEASON 2 DROPS TODAY!!!
LIGHTS, CAMERA, LOBBY! 5 MINUTES WITH FILM FLORIDA’S PRESIDENT ON INCENTIVES via Abraham Aboraya of the Orlando Business Journal
Film Florida released an updated study Feb. 10, looking at how incentives for the film industry could boost local film productions. And that, the report states, can boost film-induced tourism.
I spoke with Leah Sokolowsky, a location manager and scout and the current president of Film Florida about the report. Sokolowsky was scouting a site in sugar cane fields in South Florida.
Film Florida and local leaders are pushing the state Legislature to fund $200 million in incentives for film companies each year between now and 2020. I asked Sokolowsky if the timing of the report was designed to coincide with the start of the 2013 legislative session.
“Well, yeah,” Sokolowsky said. “There is a method to the madness, of course. We want to be in the forefronts of their hearts and minds.”
She said the states with funded incentives are seeing an increase in their workforce. Florida, though, where all the incentives have been accounted for, is seeing a flat or slight decrease in the number of workers in the film industry.
The report had a new twist this year, looking at how films influenced tourism. In a survey of people who visited Florida from August 2012 to August 2013, 22.7 percent said watching a movie or TV series was either extremely important or very important to travel to Florida.
That means between 4.6 million visitors and 17.8 million visitors to Florida came because of movies and TV shows filmed here.
MATT DIXON TO HEAD NEW DAILY NEWS, SCRIPPS TALLAHASSEE BUREAU via Naples Daily News
Matt Dixon will become Tallahassee Bureau Chief of the newly created E.W. Scripps Co. bureau in the state capital.
Dixon has a proven track record of top-end enterprise and investigative journalism, combined with the ability to develop sources, cut to the chase of an issue and deliver it to readers across platforms in an engaging manner.
“Our decision to base a full-time reporter in Tallahassee underscores our commitment to providing readers and viewers with unique and exclusive journalism with local impact. We are pleased to have Matt Dixon join the Scripps team,” said Mizell Stewart III, VP/Content for the E.W. Scripps Company.
Dixon currently serves as statehouse reporter for the Florida Times-Union.
Dixon, in his new role, will help oversee coverage of both state government and political campaigns and work closely with our political reporting teams in Naples, Treasure Coast Newspapers, and our television stations, WPTV in West Palm Beach and WFTS in Tampa.
WEEKEND TV
Florida This Week on Tampa Bay’s WEDU: Dr. Darryl Paulson,Professor Emeritus of Government, USF-St. Petersburg; Ernest Hooper, East Hillsborough Bureau Chief/Columnist, Tampa Bay Times; Alison Morano, Vice-Chair, Florida Democratic Party; Paul Bedinghaus, former chair of the Pinellas County Republican Party.
Political Connections on Tampa Bay’s BayNews 9: Congressional candidate Alex Sink.
Political Connections on Orlando’s CF 13: House District 44 candidate Vicki Bell.
The Usual Suspects which airs on WCTV-Tallahassee/Thomasville (CBS) and WJHG-Panama City (NBC): Steve Vancore, Gary Yordon, Dara Kam, and Ed Moore.
***Madison Social – Tallahassee’s Hottest Spot – is your location for lunch, happy hour, and dinner. Catering for your meetings are also available. For lunch service, complementary valet is available so you can leave the office and return within one hour. To see our menu, please visit here.***
HAPPY BIRTHDAY this weekend to Rep. Mark Danish and my good friend, John Morroni.
