Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, and Ryan Ray.
Let’s talk about mapmaking.
Counterintelligence experts use threat assessment methodogy to identify potential areas of conflict and to determine the likelihood of trouble from these hotspots. To visualize these threats, security experts use color-coded maps to highlight points of concern (Thomas Barnett did this very well in 2007 with his Core-Gap map). Active fighting is usually marked in red, areas of concern in yellow, and so on.
If one were to apply this threat assessment methodology to Florida politics, how red would Tallahassee appear on the map? That’s right, the capital would be a bright, burning shade of red, wouldn’t it?
Another legislative session has collapsed. And while the real-world implications are not life or death — legislators were not arguing over the budget or insurance rates or Medicaid expansion or classroom sizes — one has to wonder if this is Edward Gibbon time. As in, are we witnessing the the beginning of the Decline and Fall of the Florida Republican Empire?
Fortunately for the Florida GOP, the state’s Democrats are less organized than an invading army of barbarians. Still, it’s interesting to map out the hotspots in Florida politics.
Just try putting all of these points of conflict on one map:
— Gov. Rick Scott vs. the Florida Senate over hospital funding;
— Gov. Scott vs. the Florida Legislature over Enterprise Florida funding;
— Gov. Scott vs. the RPOF over party fundraising;
— The RPOF vs. Republican state Senators over party fundraising;
— The Florida Legislature vs. The Florida Supreme Court over reforms to the Court;
— Jack Latvala vs. Joe Negron to be Senate President;
— Latvala vs. Scott Chief of Staff Melissa Sellers;
— Richard Corcoran vs. The Florida Senate;
— Blaise Ingoglia, et al vs. Eric Eisnaugle to be House Speaker;
— Adam Putnam vs. Jeff Atwater (maybe) vs. Will Weatherford (maybe) vs. Marco Rubio (maybe) over 2018 frontrunner status
— Map of state’s congressional districts unknown;
— Map of state’s Senate districts unknown.
And that’s just our list of threats to Republican hegemony. The Tampa Bay Times John Romano’s latest column posits that 2015 is in the running for the worst year in Florida politics history.
At some point, some smart Republican leader needs to develop their own threat assessment map and determine how to put out some of these fires.
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WELCOME ABOARD to James Rosica, who starts reporting and writing today for FloridaPolitics.com. His final story for the Tampa Tribune is where Sunburn begins.
LAWMAKERS’ STALEMATE MEANS COURT MAY DRAW HOUSE DISTRICTS via James Rosica of the Tampa Tribune
A special legislative session to redraw the state’s congressional districts imploded … with lawmakers failing to do the one job they had reconvened to do … House and Senate unwilling to compromise … House members shot down two consecutive attempts by the Senate to extend the special session to next Tuesday.
Shortly before that … Bill Galvano … stormed out of a public meeting with his House counterpart, Jose Oliva … saying the Senate wasn’t going to budge …
It’s now likely that the state’s Supreme Court justices will have to redraw the boundary lines … add fuel to efforts to create an independent commission that would decide future redistricting. The disagreement … ultimately centered on competing plans for Hillsborough County.
The map backed by the Senate and proposed by … Tom Lee … all of eastern Hillsborough into the 15th District, currently held by GOP Congressman Dennis Ross … also edges Ross out of his own district by moving the line so Ross’ residence lies just outside of it.
The House map … keeps the southern half of eastern Hillsborough in the 16th District, now held by Republican Vern Buchanan.
Oliva said the way the Senate map favored Hillsborough at the expense of parts of central Florida ensured that the court would rule those lines unconstitutional … House members also privately complained this week that Lee was trying to create a congressional district he could win.
Among its options, the court could draw its own map from scratch, choose to enact the House map or the Senate map, or combine elements from both … Leaders on both sides of the Capitol dismissed the possibility of another special session on redistricting. Now the court will decide.
HOW THE SPECIAL SESSION COLLAPSE IS PLAYING
Associated Press, Florida Senate, House can’t agree on congressional districts – “As legislators complained about ‘dysfunction’ … session officially ended at noon with the House and Senate locked in a stalemate … failure to follow the mandate of the state’s highest court …” New York Times, Florida Legislators Fail to Agree on Congressional Districts –“… another sign of discord between feuding Republican leaders … could not agree on last-ditch efforts to present a unified plan …” Wall Street Journal, Florida Lawmakers Fail to Make Progress on Redistricting – “… legislative collapse increases the likelihood that the courts will take on the task of redrawing the congressional map …” Miami Herald, State Sen. Bill Galvano leads walkout as Florida Legislature special session collapses – “… the third session this year that has ended amid feuding between Republicans and it creates political uncertainty heading into the 2016 elections.” Tampa Tribune, Legislative dysfunction shows need for independent redistricting commission – “… dishonesty and utter dysfunction … is proof enough that the task shouldn’t be left to a group of sitting lawmakers who have too much at stake in the outcome.” Palm Beach Post, Dysfunctional Legislature blows it again on redistricting – “It could all have been simple … simply have done what their lawyers advised them to, and ratified the ‘base map’ … To the Republicans running the House, the word ‘compromise’ has become anathema.” Florida Times-Union, Lessons learned from special session No. 2 – “The final takeaway is: It ain’t over yet.”
— MORE FROM INSIDE THE LINES —
— “Lois Frankel’s focus on Broward could pay political dividends in post-redistricting election” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun Sentinel
— “Polk delegation disappointed over legislative deadlock” via Daniel Figueroa of the Ledger
— “Redistricting failure gives Palm Beach County chance to preserve congressional clout” via George Bennett of the Palm Beach Post
— “Special session failure leaves uncertain future for Gwen Graham” via Bill Cotterell of the Tallahassee Democrat
DON GAETZ: ‘THERE IS NO TRUST’ BETWEEN HOUSE, SENATE via Matt Dixon And Jessica Bakeman of POLITCO
State Sen. Gaetz says there’s a lack of trust between the House and Senate — a dynamic that has forced an implosion of the legislative process twice in less than four months … “Unfortunately, there is no trust. There is not a cooperative relationship between the leadership of the Senate and the leadership of the House …”
Gaetz served as Senate president … marked by a good relationship both in public and behind closed doors with then-House Speaker Will Weatherford … “I was fortunate to work with someone who never wanted to kneecap the Senate and who trusted me and whom I reposed trust,” he said.
Gaetz said the dynamic between the two chambers was different when he was president, even when the Senate disagreed with the House.
“Will and I disagreed, but we disagreed civilly, and in most cases, we found a way to get to the middle. And that’s missing,” he said.
— Adam Smith’s Loser of the Week in Florida politics: Don Gaetz
— “Don’t go roping Will Weatherford into the Florida Senate’s mess, Andy Gardiner” via Florida Politics
THAT JOHN ROMANO COLUMN REFERENCED ABOVE — 2015 IN THE RUNNING FOR MOST PATHETIC YEAR IN FLORIDA POLITICS HISTORY via the Tampa Bay Times
In the face of judicial demands, public ridicule and private heartburn, legislators still managed to end a special session on redistricting in complete disarray … they kept alive the distinct possibility that we may soon be able to proclaim 2015 as the most pathetic year in the history of Florida politics.
After all, this is a state that single-handedly held up a presidential election in 2000 … bungled the 1876 presidential election … elected Rick Scott as governor. Twice!
How could 2015 possibly be in the running as the worst of the bunch? It is the consistent stupidity. The relentless undermining and backstabbing. It is the utter dedication to self-interest in the guise of public service … a remarkable eight-month run in Tallahassee. Scandal followed by embarrassment followed by ineptness … without a hint of shame or remorse.
We began with a bang in early January when Scott kept insisting that Florida Department of Law Enforcement chief Gerald Bailey had resigned … that was a crock … the governor lied to cover up the fact he was defying the Constitution to fire a law enforcement official … House followed by ending the legislative session early … because it refused to accept billions of dollars in federal money so poverty-level residents could buy private health insurance … if one special session weren’t enough, the state Supreme Court sent legislators back to Tallahassee … to redraw congressional maps …influenced by political consultants in violation of the Constitution.
Still the Republican-controlled Senate and Republican-controlled House could not agree on a map as the Republican governor and the Republican Cabinet looked on … while the rest of the country worries about the lack of bipartisan cooperation, Florida is mired in uni-partisan gridlock.
— TRAIL MIX —
WHY DONALD TRUMP WON’T FOLD via Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn and Jeremy Peters of the New York Times
Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates. …
In poll after poll of Republicans, Trump leads among women … He leads among evangelical Christians … He leads among moderates and college-educated voters … He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting. … [But] the polling suggests … Trump will run into a wall: Most Republicans do not support his candidacy … [M]ore say they definitely would not vote for him than say they support him.
But the breadth of Trump’s coalition is surprising at a time of religious, ideological and geographic divisions in the Republican Party. It suggests he has the potential to outdo the flash-in-the-pan candidacies that roiled the last few Republican … contests. And it hints at the problem facing his competitors and the growing pressure on them to confront him, as several, like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, are starting to do.
His support is not tethered to a single issue or sentiment: immigration, economic anxiety or an anti-establishment mood. Those factors may have created conditions for his candidacy to thrive, but his personality, celebrity and boldness … have let him take advantage of them. …
[W]hen asked to explain support for Trump in their own words, voters … used much the same language, calling him ‘ballsy’ ‘and saying they … relished how he ‘isn’t politically correct.’ … Trumpism, the data and interviews suggest, is an attitude, not an ideology.
FLA INSIDER POLL: TRUMP WILL BE ON FLA’S MARCH BALLOT, JEB WILL WIN via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times
Nearly 80 percent of … Sunshine state politicos surveyed predict that Donald Trump will be on the ballot … Many Republican leaders had expected Trump’s candidacy to fizzle out by now, but he continues to lead in most polls … still being in the race by mid-March is not the same thing as Trump winning the Sunshine state race … Two thirds of the Florida Insiders predicted Jeb Bush will win Florida’s primary and ultimately the Republican nomination too.
“2016 race certainly getting stranger by the day – but only Jeb has the resources & campaign organization to wait out the Trump bubble until in bursts. Trump currently the anti-Bush option – he is allowing no one else to grab that mantle with any certainty – that helps Jeb long term,” said one Republican. “End of the day Jeb emerges and wins a very tough fight for the nomination. Followed by an even tougher fight in the fall that will also see him prevail.”
FIVE REASONS BUSH ISN’T FREAKING OUT ABOUT TRUMP via Marc Caputo and Anna Palmer of POLITICO
1. Trump v. Somebody… Before Trump soared, Bush was on top. But while Trump’s climb has corresponded with Bush’s fall, Bush hasn’t crashed to earth. 2. Jeb, Inc. …By any measure, the roughly $120 million amassed by Bush’s campaign, super PAC and leadership PAC is as stunning as it is life sustaining for the candidate. 3. Bush, Inc. Before there was Jeb, Inc. 2016, there was Bush, Inc. 4. The Bush Record … Underpinning Jeb, Inc.’s belief in its candidate is that no other Republican candidate can match his record as governor … This is “the Florida story” that Jeb, Inc. has already started to tell. 5. Bush Time …With all that money and institutional support, Bush’s team says it’s secure because it has the luxury of time. Bush has compared himself to the slow, plodding tortoise in Aesop’s fable.
OUCH TWEET, TWEET (in response to Caputo’s story): @KausMickey: Hate it when @politico basically prints their sources’ press release with no other views. Here’s Exhibit #27,593
BACK AT YOU: @MarcACaputo: I expect it when you don’t have the guts to address me directly or the honesty to fairly read & analyze what I write
SAVE THE DATE: Bush’s late-summer fundraising tour swing by Florida … $1,000-a-ticket private reception begins 6 p.m. Monday, August 31 … 5345 Hammock Drive in Coral Gables. A spot on the host committee, which includes a VIP reception and photo, will be $20,000 (either donated or raised); an individual photo op with Bush costs $2,700.
SHOT — “Jeb Bush’s Super PAC Has a Bad Photoshop Moment” — Right to Rise USA tweeted a picture of the inaugural mailing, which appears to show Bush posing in front of a bridge in what appears to be Cedar Rapids, the second largest city in Iowa. But a closer look at the photo seems to show that Bush was actually superimposed on a stock image of the city, while his left hand appears to belong to someone else.
CHASER — @Paul_Lindsay: Mysterious hand revealed. Meant to use Valencia. Fail. Not deleting it from our servers.
BEN POLLARA DISCUSSES HIS “DRAFT JOE BIDEN FOR VP FOR 8 MORE YEARS” FACEBOOK PAGE via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics
Florida Democratic Party consultant and lobbyist Ben Pollara says he “loves Joe Biden,” but that ardor does not translate into … hoping the Vice President opts to take the leap into the 2016 presidential sweepstakes … Along with his pal Brian Franklin, Pollara created a Facebook page … “Draft Joe Biden for VP for 8 more years” … vice president’s name has always been mentioned in talk about potential 2016 Democratic presidential aspirants, and officially Biden has never said definitely that he would not run … bandwagon started up again after New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd reported … Biden was talking to friends, family and donors about jumping into the race … Pollara, a huge Clinton supporter … dismisses such talk as emanating mostly from a cabal of conservative media commentators and/or “unemployed presidential campaign political consultants who are looking for another gig.”
That sounded distinctly like a shot at Steve Schale … Schale’s enthusiasm about a Biden candidacy has now led to his working with the Draft Biden 2016 team.
— “Marco Rubio gets the Wright Brothers wrong” via Jack Torry of The Columbus Dispatch
A CHALLENGER FOR KELLI STARGEL? via Bill Rufty of Florida Politics
Democrats in Polk County have been … courting former Circuit Judge Robert Doyel to challenge Republican state Sen. Kelli Stargel of Lakeland for her District 15 Senate seat next year … Doyel has not given them an answer as yet, said Polk County Democratic Party Chairman Ellis Moose of Solivita, adding they remain hopeful. Doyel … is the author of “The Baby Mama Syndrome,” dealing with the issues of young, unwed mothers.
2ND DEMOCRAT FILES FOR ROSS SPANO’S HOUSE SEAT via Florida Politics
A second Democrat filed for the House District 59 seat on Thursday, setting up a primary battle to face Dover Republican Rep. Ross Spano … Rena Jade Upshaw-Frazier, a partner at Quarles and Brady law firm in Tampa and a Stetson School of Law graduate, will take on schoolteacher Golnaz Sahebzamani for the Democratic nod. Upshaw-Frazier is married to former USF basketball star Anddrikk Frazier.
TWEET, TWEET: @GovGoneWild: No rest for the weary … Less than 24 hours after session I was back on the road yesterday rallying the troops to #stophillary in 2016
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ICYMI: FLORIDA JOBLESS RATE DIPPED SLIGHTLY IN JUNE via the Associated Press
Florida’s July unemployment rate was 5.4 percent, compared to 5.6 percent for the previous month. The state added 30,500 jobs last month … jobless rate remains higher than the national rate of 5.3 percent. There are approximately 517,000 unemployed Floridians.
Monroe County, which includes the Florida Keys, had the state’s lowest unemployment rate at 3.9 percent, while Hendry County … had the highest jobless rate at 12.7 percent.
FEDS GIVE STATE 60-DAY EXTENSION ON LOW INCOME POOL SPENDING via Christine Sexton of POLITICO Florida
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have given Florida a 60-day extension of the Low Income Pool authority along with approval to spend about $166 million to pay providers, mostly hospitals.
The interim spending approval was quietly granted at the end of June and is effective through the end of August. It was done so the state and federal government could continue negotiating the details of a final agreement, according to an official at the centers.
Florida and the federal govenrment agreed in principle on the size and duration of the program as well as the distribution of the money. The federal government is working closely with the state to finalize the agreement, the source said.
The federal government advised Florida in 2014 that it would not extend a supplemental pot of Medicaid dollars — known as Low Income Pool — beyond June 30, 2015. Florida uses so-called LIP dollars to pay hospitals as well as health care clinics and for physician training.
DARREN SOTO AND DWIGHT BULLARD TO AGAIN ROLL OUT ANTI-FRACKING LEGISLATION via Frank Torres of Florida Politics
Sens. Soto and Bullard … will formally introduce legislation for the 2016 Legislative Session that seeks to make fracking illegal statewide. The announcement will come at a press conference in front of the Orange County Administration Building. In the bill’s first attempt earlier this year, session ended before the proposal could make serious progress.
ASSOCIATED INDUSTRIES SAYS STATE SHOULD REGULATE UBER, LYFY, RIDE-SHARING via Antonio Fins of the Pam Beach Post
Calling on the state government to step in and level the proverbial playing field is sensible, one Florida’s most important business groups says. One set of rules covering the whole state for transportation networks like Uber and Lyft could make for a more consistent approach than 67 different sets of county rules governing for-pay ride-sharing.
Tom Feeney, president and CEO of the Associated Industries of Florida, said AIF has been a consistent opponent of the growing patchwork quilt of local regulations on transportation companies.
“Uber type capabilities help business travelers and Florida residents gave choice and quality options,” Feeney said in West Palm Beach this week. “Onerous local regulations hamper Florida in 21st century technology advancement opportunities.”
… Punt-to-Tallahassee critics will say, with justified skepticism, there no assurances lawmakers and the governor will act. Others say it’s governance best left to local governments.
“We think it should stay at the county level,” said Rebecca Walls, spokeswoman for the advocacy group Who’s Driving You. “Those [local governments] know their areas best.”
Agreed, and county-wide regulations have worked for regulating taxi service. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.
But it’s not working — especially politically — for statewide transportation networks like Uber and Lyft.
One other thing — the slippery slope. If counties are going to regulate app-driven transportation networks, what happens when they get calls to nanny dating and hook-up networks like AshleyMadison and Tinder? And you thought the Uber battle was ugly.
SPEAKING OF ASHLEYMADISON … RITCH WORKMAN SAYS HE’S EMBARRASSED BY AM CONNECTION via Florida Politics
Responding to a report in which he is listed as a customer of an online dating website for married people looking for affairs, powerful Florida House Rules Chairman Ritch Workman says he’s regrets signing up on the site and is embarrassed by the situation.
The Melbourne Republican’s name can be found in the data dump involving subscribers to AshleyMadison.com. On Tuesday, hackers who call themselves the Impact Team posted a 10-gigabyte file purporting to be from AshleyMadison.com. Research by Florida Politics and St. Pete Polls turned up Workman’s name, as well as several other Floridians involved in the political process.
It’s important to note that Workman joined the website when he was not married.
“During a time in my life when I was single, I saw an ad for an online dating site and I clicked on it,” Workman said. “Even though I never met anyone through this site and the site was clearly not for me, I regret this decision.”
“I am frankly embarrassed that this news has now come to light three and a half years later,” said Workman.
— “State Attorney Jeff Ashton Exposed As Paid Ashley Madison Member” via Jacob Engels of the East Orlando Post
— “On second thought, we won’t be publishing stories about non-elected officials who are on AshleyMadison” via SaintPetersBlog
WHAT MARC CAPUTO IS READING — FLORIDA GRAND JURY TO INVESTIGATE FLAKKA AFTER 33 DEATHS via the Associated Press
Broward County grand jury is preparing to investigate the distribution and use of the synthetic drug flakka following at least 33 deaths linked to the substance over the past 10 months.
State Attorney Michael Satz says the goal is to find ways to assist law enforcement, medical providers and the community as a whole in tackling the growing problem.
Satz says Broward County hospitals are seeing up to 20 flakka-related patients a day and many more are going to drug treatment centers.
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NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS
Brian Ballard, Greg Turbeville, Ballard Partners: White’s Ford Timber, LLC
Herschel Vinyard, Foley & Lardner: Anderson Columbia
Susan Stephens, Hopping Green & Sams: Gulf Power Company
Monte Stevens, Southern Strategy Group: Bradley Stinson & Associates, Inc.
RICHARD CORBETT RESIGNS AS FLORIDA FISH AND WILDLIFE COMMISSIONER via Craig Pittman of the Tampa Bay Times
Corbett sent a letter to Gov. Rick Scott dated Tuesday in which he said he wanted to “retire” before his term on the commission officially ended in 2018. His last day is Sept. 1.
Corbett’s letter makes no mention of the controversial decision to bring back bear hunting, a move he strongly supported even though 75 percent of the 40,000 people who called, emailed or wrote letters to commissioners opposed it. He gave no reason for his resignation, and could not be reached for comment Saturday.
WHAT TRAVIS BLANTON IS READING — SEAWORLD BOOSTS LOBBYING, CAMPAIGN SPENDING AS IT SEEKS POLITICAL CLOUT via Sandra Pedicini of the Orlando Sentinel
As it faces controversy and calls for tougher industry regulation, SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. has been trying to boost its political influence.
SeaWorld spent almost half a million dollars on federal lobbying from January to June — 68 percent more than in the same period last year, records show.
… In Florida, no bills have been unveiled that would directly affect SeaWorld’s orca shows. Earlier this year, state Sen. Rene Garcia considered legislation that would have required the Miami Seaquarium to provide some sun protection and more unobstructed space for Lolita. He did not file it.
Lobbying in Florida is tougher to determine, because companies report only ranges of spending and don’t have to disclose issues.
SeaWorld’s donations to political candidates in Florida did not increase in the most recent full election cycle. SeaWorld donated $141,000 in the 2010 election cycle, records show. That rose to $204,000 for 2012 elections and lowered to $176,000 for 2014.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PRESEASON TOP 25 via The Associated Press
Ohio State is the first unanimous preseason No. 1 in The Associated Press college football poll.
The defending national champion Buckeyes received all 61 first-place votes from the media panel in the rankings released Sunday.
TCU is No. 2, followed by Alabama, Baylor and Michigan State.
The Buckeyes won the first College Football Playoff championship last season and are trying to become the 12th team to win consecutive AP titles since the poll began in 1936.
Preseason rankings date back to 1950. Since then no team had received more than 97 percent of the first-place votes in a preseason poll.
In 2013, Alabama, which had won two straight championships, received 58 of 60 first-place votes and defending champion Florida did the same in 2009. Neither finished the season No. 1.
The rest of this year’s preseason top 10 is Auburn, Oregon, Southern California, Georgia and Florida State.
TWEET, TWEET: @CecilHurt: No Florida, Texas or Nebraska in preseason poll. 1st time since AP began preseason poll (1950) that at least one of those didn’t make it.
HURRICANE DANNY DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM, SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING via Gal Lotan and David Harris of the Orlando Sentinel
Hurricane Danny was downgraded Sunday to a tropical storm with 60 mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm is traveling west at about 15 mph.
It may gain some forward speed as it turns west later on Saturday, forecasters said.
But within the next 48 hours, meteorologists expect it to weaken.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY to Sen. Rob Bradley, Doug Adkins, Andrea Reilly, Dan Bruno, the Associated Builders and Contractors’ Steve Cona, Troy Kinsey and former State Rep. Leslie Waters. Belated wishes to Peret Pass.
