Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Mitch Perry, Ryan Ray, and Jim Rosica.
Good morning from Orlando, where the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s Future of Florida Forum is wrapping-up. Tuesday’s panels and presentations were a barrage of data points, economic development chest-thumping, and warning signs.
The buzzword “disruption” was repeated throughout the day — which should be taken as a positive because it means the larger, establishment businesses which comprise organizations like the Chamber recognize the, um, disruptive economic environment.
Capped off by speeches from Lieutenant Governor/U.S. Senate candidate Carlos Lopez-Cantera and former House Speaker Will Weatherford, Tuesday was a policy-driven day that will require more than a few moments to digest. That said, the highlight, at least for me, was Marian Johnson and Andrew Wiggins — two political junkies if there was — breaking down the latest poll numbers, including…
FLORIDA CHAMBER POLL OF FLA.: DONALD TRUMP 25%, MARCO RUBIO 14%, JEB BUSH 13% via Florida Politics
The latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll shows Floridians view the two candidates leading in the polls for the Republican and Democratic nominations for President – Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump – more negative than positive.
— Clinton: Of likely Florida voters, the Florida Chamber poll shows only 37 percent have a favorable opinion, while 57 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her.
— Trump: Likely Florida voters have a 35 percent favorable opinion, with 53 percent having an unfavorable opinion of him.
— Jeb Bush: Likely Florida voters have a 48 percent favorable opinion of him compared to 39 percent having an unfavorable opinion.
If the race were held today: In the presidential Republican primary, Trump leads with 25 percent, while Carly Fiorina, Bush and Marco Rubio are all within the margin of error of each other.
EXCLUSIVE: JEFF ATWATER CLEAR FRONTRUNNER WERE HE TO JUMP INTO U.S. SENATE RACE
Johnson and Wiggins shared with me an exclusive data point from their polling that is sure to cause a lot of heartache for the Republicans currently running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Marco Rubio.
Atwater, who flirted with running for the seat before announcing he would not, would lead the field with 21% of the vote — and that’s also if you throw Bill McCollum in the mix. Ron DeSantis, David Jolly, and CLC would be mired in single-digits were Atwater to get back into the race.
The prospect of Atwater finding his way onto the ballot in 2016 should not be dismissed too easily. For one, he’s on top of his game as CFO, as was evidenced by his dazzling presentation Monday to the Future of Florida Forum.
Second, an Atwater insider told me about six weeks ago that he continues to ask Atwater if he’s considering jumping back in the race. The Chief does not say yes, this source says, “but he doesn’t say no, either.”
MORE FROM DAY 2 OF THE FUTURE OF FLORIDA FORUM
— “FDOT chief Jim Boxhold says his dept embraces complete streets approach” via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics
— “Florida Chamber panel says employee wellness can start simple” via Florida Politics
FLORIDA BRAND SURVEY: THOSE WHO KNOW US, LOVE US via Florida Politics
Out of state business executives and citizens are more likely to move to Florida than any other state, according to a new survey from Sachs Media Group.
Presented by Sachs executives Michelle Ubben and Karen Cyphers Tuesday, the Florida Brand Survey found there was a lot to like about the Sunshine State. The climate and proximity to family were the biggest draws and outsiders tend to like the state more after a visit, too.
Seven out of 10 non-Floridians have visited or lived in the state, and 29 percent saythey would consider Florida their top pick if they had to move. Business executives polled similarly. Of the 78 percent who said they’ve been to Florida, 27 percent said it was their top pick if they had to relocate. Floridians like their state, too: 88 percent say it’s a great place to live and 66 percent said they plan to stay, while just 58 percent of outsiders said the same of their home state.
Two-thirds of those polled – and 71 percent of business execs – said the climate is Florida’s biggest plus, though it acts a double-edged sword, with 50 percent of respondents listing the heat, humidity and hurricane risk as reasons they wouldn’t make the move. Nature, namely bugs, alligators, snakes and swamps, was the top problem for another 7 percent.
SPOTTED at Day 2 of #FutureofFL Forum: Weatherford, Reps. Jay Fant, Scott Plakon and Dana Young, Paul Anderson, Melanie Brown, Keyna Cory, Chris Flack, Charlie Latham, Teye Reeves, Chester Spellman, Doug Wheeler.
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— 2016 —
JEB BUSH AND MARCO RUBIO RACE THE WALL STREET CASH via Ben White of POLITICO
Bush and Rubio are headed for a smackdown on Wall Street.
The former Florida governor and current Florida senator have dueling fundraisers set for the week of Oct. 12th with top financial industry executives in New York as Bush looks to maintain his dominance in the industry despite low poll numbers and Rubio hopes to capitalize on recent momentum to make his case to the deep-pocketed Republican establishment.
The invite to Bush’s breakfast event on October 16th — one of several he will hold that day — features a daunting array of 68 top Wall Street names including Jets owner Woody Johnson, attorney Larry Bathgate, Barclays executive Patrick Durkin and Highbridge Capital’s Scott Kapnick.
The minimum donation to attend the event is $2,700. Those who commit to contribute and raise $27,000 get a photo opportunity with Bush in addition to the breakfast, which will take place at the Hilton Hotel on 6th Avenue. Bush supporters say the list reflects the former governor’s dominant position among the financial elite.
“This is the varsity squad,” one donor quipped. “I’m not sure Rubio’s would even qualify as the junior varsity.”
BUSH’S POLL NUMBERS ARE TERRIBLE; WHY AREN’T WE TALKING ABOUT THEM via Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post
In April, one in every four likely Republican primary voters nationally said they would support Bush for president, according to an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. Today, just 7 percent say the same. And, it’s not just the NBC-WSJ poll.
That’s a remarkable — and remarkably steady — erosion of support unmatched by anyone still running for the Republican nomination. The only person to experience anything close to that sort of drastic drop-off was Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ended his candidacy last week.
So, why is no one talking about Bush’s struggles — particularly given that he is the best-known candidate in the field and was widely regarded as the front-runner when he entered the race in June? I put that exact question to some of the smartest minds in the Republican Party who aren’t currently working for Bush or any of the other 14 announced candidates.
“Jeb’s strategy is predicated on his remaining the front-runner in the ‘political insider’ lane,” said one longtime GOP operative who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly. “That is, when the field narrows and establishment Republicans look for an alternative to Donald Trump, Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina, Jeb is counting on being the most popular remaining item on the menu. But that assumption is not something the Bush campaign can count on. [Sen. Marco] Rubio has now eclipsed Jeb as the most popular remaining item on the menu.”
BUSH STRUGGLES TO CALM DONORS via Eli Stokols of POLITICO
For the past week, Bush’s campaign advisers have been using a new data point to convince nervous donors that he’s still the candidate to beat — Bush’s lead in the political prediction markets.
Just one problem: Beginning Sunday night, PredictIt, the biggest of the online sites and the one referenced last week by top Bush advisers and confidants, placed Marco Rubio ahead of Bush at the head of the GOP pack. The sudden evaporation of yet another data point in his favor explains the tension in and around Bush’s campaign this week on the eve of the third quarter FEC fundraising deadline.
FIRST TAXES, THEN REGULATION, NOW ENERGY: BUSH CONTINUES POLICY ROLLOUT via Patricia Mazzei of the Miami Herald
A President Bush would do away with a ban on U.S. oil exports, lift restrictions on oil and gas production and build the Keystone XL pipeline and lessen environmental regulations, including President Barack Obama‘s plan requiring power plants to reduce carbon emissions.
The former Florida governor outlined his energy policy Tuesday, touching on classic Republican economic principles that Bush argued would create jobs and lower energy costs.
Bush’s policy roll-out at Rice Energy near Pittsburgh was the third proposal he presented in September, after laying out principles for taxes and regulations. As he’s seen his popularity slip in early presidential polls, Bush has stressed his wonky bona fides to GOP voters.
“I’m sick and tired of people thinking that the Chinese are eating our lunch,” Bush said. “I’ve laid out a plan to lift our spirits a little bit.”
GUESS WHICH FLA. LEGISLATORS WERE CALLING FORMER SCOTT WALKER BACKERS IN IOWA FOR BUSH via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times
When Scott Walker ended his presidential campaign last week, it set off a scramble among the rest of the field to pick up Walker supporters. For the Bush campaign, part of that effort included having a couple Republican Florida state Senators, Jack Latvala and Bill Galvano phone Iowa state senators with Walker, to tell them about their experience with Jeb Bush’s leadership.
They’re not the only one who have been working the phones on Bush’s behalf. Former Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford and former Senate President Don Gaetz also have made calls on behalf of Bush.
— “Top Scott Walker fundraiser enlists with Jeb Bush” via the New York Times
RUBIO TO WOO JEWISH REPUBLICANS AT NYC FUNDRAISER via Jacob Kornbluh of Jewish Insider
Rubio is expected to come to New York on Wednesday, October 14, to attend a high-dollar fundraiser headlined by several Republican Jewish Coalition board members.
The event is hosted by Phil Rosen at his offices on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan and costs $1,000 per person or $2,700 for a hosting role, according to the invitation obtained by Jewish Insider.
Rosen, a co-chair of Weil Gotshal’s real estate practice, officially endorsed Rubio and signed on as a foreign policy advisor for the campaign in late June. According to two sources, it is believed that Rosen raised around $5 million for Mitt Romney in 2012. Rosen is also close with Sheldon Adelson, with whom he serves on the boards of the RJC and Birthright Israel.
Rubio is considered the frontrunner in what has been dubbed as the ‘Adelson primary’ – a favorite to win the coveted endorsement of the Vegas casino mogul, as well as in the Paul Singer sweepstakes.
RUBIO = OBAMA?
Slate looks at Rubio’s trajectory and concludes he’s starting to look a bit like Barack Obama in 2008, with Bush playing the role of Clinton.
“There’s no question Bush can win (for a while, in fact, Clinton could too). But he has to step his game up, and fast; Rubio is on the rise, and Jeb – more than anyone else – is his target.”
BUSH, RUBIO, LINDSEY GRAHAM, BOBBY JINDAL CONFIRM ATTENDANCE AT FLORIDA GOP’S SUNSHINE SUMMIT via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times
Florida Republican Party Chairman Blaise Ingoglia confirms that Bush, Rubio, Graham, and Jindal have committed to attend the party’s Nov. 13-14 Sunshine Summit in Orlando.
“Their participation will help fire up Florida Republicans as we come together before 2016. The Sunshine Summit is a unique event where candidates will share their vision for the future of our nation with the more than 2,500 expected activists and grassroots leaders in one of the most influential primary and general election swing states. We look forward to announcing additional participating candidates as we draw closer to our event,” said Ingoglia.
GREAT READ — DONALD TRUMP IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE via Mark Leibovich of the New York Times
I encountered the phenomenon up close at the first Republican debate…I positioned myself in the post-debate ‘spin room’…The candidates themselves almost never venture in. But suddenly, at the end of the night, a literal stampede was rumbling toward a far corner of the room, where Trump had crashed this assembly of polite company. I have seen many press scrums, but never like this. It was scary.
…In the months since, Trump has grown into a kind of one-man chaos theory at the center of a primary campaign in disarray…Where does this end? I kept asking Trump this as we sat around his office and rode around in limousines and airplanes. ‘I have no idea,’ he always said, sometimes modifying the noun with a big, unclassy profanity. ‘But I’m here now. And it’s beautiful.’”
I asked whether he had ever experienced self-doubt. The question seemed to catch Trump off guard, and he flashed a split second of, if not vulnerability, maybe nonswagger. ‘’Yes, I think more than people would think,’ he told me. When? ‘I don’t want to talk about it’…’Our country needs to be glamorized,’ Trump said, turning to me…The idea of a president as Everyman stands at odds with his glamorized vision for the nation. The president should be a man apart, exceptional and resplendent in every way. ‘Jimmy Carter used to get off Air Force One carrying his luggage,’ Trump said. ‘I used to say, ‘I don’t want a president carrying his luggage’ … ’Some people think this will be good for my brand,’ Trump concluded, as deep as he probes. ‘’I think it’s irrelevant for my brand.”
TRUMPS NET WORTH VALUED AT $4.5 BILLION via Forbes
Trump’s valuation this year holds extra importance, of course, due to his audacious second act: his highly unlikely–but no longer inconceivable–path to the presidency. Trump has filed statements claiming he’s worth at least $10 billion or, as he put in a press release, TEN BILLION DOLLARS (capitalization his). After interviewing more than 80 sources and devoting unprecedented resources to valuing a single fortune, we’re going with a figure less than half that — $4.5 billion, albeit still the highest figure we’ve ever had for him.
MEANWHILE … RAND PAUL NEXT TO DROP OUT?
PurplePAC, one of the three super PACs supporting Sen. Rand Paul for president, is no longer actively fundraising. “I have stopped raising money for him until I see the campaign correct its problems,” said the group’s leader.
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GWEN GRAHAM’S POLITICAL FUTURE MIXED, NEW POLLS SAY via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics
Graham losing a proposed redrawn 2nd Congressional District seat next election but leading other contenders in a hypothetical matchup for Rubio‘s U.S. Senate seat.
But the polls don’t show her standing in the district as currently drawn, which takes in a swath of north Florida roughly from Perry to Bonifay.
The Harper Polling surveys for the National Republican Congressional Committee show the first-term Democrat losing to any “Republican challenger” next election 49 percent-40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The results were first reported by POLITICO Florida on Tuesday.
But the current boundaries of her district – now covering much of the Big Bend and Panhandle, including Tallahassee – may change. Matthew Isbell, an elections data consultant who works mainly for Democrats, tweeted earlier Tuesday: “Should be noted, if Graham actually got 40% in the new CD2, this would be 6 points better than Obama did.”
CHARLIE STONE ENDORSES MARY THOMAS IN CD 2 via Florida Politics
Republican state Rep. Charlie Stone endorsed first-time candidate Mary Thomas in her bid to represent Florida’s 2nd Congressional District.
“I am pleased to endorse conservative Republican Mary Thomas for Congress,” Stone said in a statement. “Mary shares the same conservative, family values as me and the constituents I represent in Marion and Levy counties.
“I believe Mary will bring true conservative change to Washington to lower taxes and reduce the size and scope of the federal government,” he added.
CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING TRIAL CLOSES: WHAT DID WE LEARN? WHAT’S UNANSWERED via Mary Ellen Klas of the Miami Herald
… [A]fter three days of hearings, here are five things we learned and what is left unknown:
1. The burden of proof has flipped since the last time the congressional maps were the subject of a trial so it’s up the the Florida Legislature to show that the maps they have drawn do not violate … the Constitution.
2. The plaintiffs argued that the Legislature did not met its burden and the Legislature’s lawyers argued that they have.
3. Lewis likes Jason Poreda, the House redistricting staff director, even asking his thoughts on the plaintiff’s map.
4. Both sides believe the final ruling will centers on District 26 in Miami Dade County, the current district is held by Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo.
5. Lewis could approve any of the maps or, as the Supreme Court directed, choose pieces from each of them.
What we don’t know? Primarily: what role did the staff have, if any, in working with the political operatives that both Lewis and the Supreme Court concluded had infiltrated the congressional redistricting process in a way that led to the maps being the product of “improper political intent.”
“I don’t ever know that we’ll ever get the complete story on that,” [attorney David] King told reporters Monday.
JAX DEMOCRAT LESLIE JEAN-BART DEBUTS HER HD 14 CAMPAIGN THURSDAY via A.G. Gancarski
Jacksonville Democrat Leslie Jean-Bart so far is running unopposed in the state House District 14 race, though there have been rumblings regarding how much longer that will last. With Councilman Reggie Brown, former Councilwoman Kim Daniels, and even the name of former City Councilwoman and current Director of Blight Denise Lee being linked to the race, questions have also surfaced about Jean-Bart’s sluggish fundraising thus far.
As of the September filing deadline, Jean-Bart had slightly more than $15,000 banked. Expect that to change considerably by the November deadline, as Jean-Bart holds a campaign debut that indicates some depth of support.
Corrine Brown, Audrey Gibson, Tony Hill, Mia Jones, and Reggie Fullwood highlight the host committee: the first name, the most powerful African-American Democrat in the history of Northeast Florida; the next four, past or present state representatives or senators.
Jean-Bart, a lawyer for Terrell Hogan, is the granddaughter of Mary Singleton, who was one of two African-American women to be elected to Jacksonville’s City Council in the first post-Consolidation election.
SPOTTED at Monday’s fundraiser for Rep. Kathleen Peters: Jack Latvala, Alan Suskey, Jay Beyrouti, Nick DiCeglie, Jim Holton, Todd Jennings, Ed Ameen, Katie Ballard, Doreen DiPolito, Robert Agrusa, Ed Montanari.
HAPPENING TONIGHT — Sarasota Republican state Rep. Ray Pilon is hosting a fundraiser for his House District 72 re-election bid. The event begins 5:30 p.m. at the Gold Coast Eagle Distributors, 7051 Wiregrass Court in Sarasota.
SAVE THE DATE: Republican House candidates John Couriel (HD 114), Randy Fine (HD 53), former Rep. Michael Grant (HD 75) and Ralph Massullo (HD 34) will hold a joint Tallahassee fundraiser on Oct. 20. Reception begins 5 p.m. at the Governor Club, 202 S. Adam St. in Tallahassee. RSVP at [email protected].
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HAPPENING OVERNIGHT — FORMER UM PRESIDENT DONNA SHALALA SUFFERS STROKE via the Associated Press
Shalala, a former cabinet secretary under President Bill Clinton and president and CEO of the Clinton Foundation, has suffered a stroke.
Clinton and his daughter Chelsea Clinton issued a statement saying the 74-year-old Shalala was stricken Tuesday evening following a meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative, the foundation’s spinoff organization which seeks solutions to international problems. Its 2015 meeting began Saturday in New York.
The Clintons said “fortunately, she was with colleagues at the time,” and was taken to a hospital. “Initial reports are very encouraging.”
RICK SCOTT OUTVOTED BY CABINET ON RANCH LAND DEAL IN CENTRAL FLORIDA via Steve Bousquet of the Tampa Bay Times
A rare sight in Tallahassee: All three Cabinet members outvoted Gov. Rick Scott Tuesday and voted to spend $4 million for a permanent conservation easement on one of the oldest ranches in Central Florida.
The surprise came after Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam outmaneuvered the governor and Attorney General Pam Bondi switched her vote.
Under Florida’s Rural and Family Lands Protection Program, the state and landowners agree on conversation easements that allow the land to remain a working ranch with no allowable private commercial development.
The land program is operated by Putnam’s agency. Scott balked. He said the appraisals on the land were too high and that the state should not pay any more than 90 percent of the lowest of two appraisals. Bondi initially sided with Scott, but she changed her mind after Putnam said state policy is to choose a compromise figure between two appraisals.
HOSPITALS STILL SCOTT’S TARGET AS HE REPEATS TRANSPARENCY PLAN via Michael Auslen of the Tampa Bay Times
Scott on Tuesday reiterated a plan to require that hospitals publish prices and financial details online.
Details of exactly what that will entail are not yet available, but the governor said in a press release Monday that he wants to see online disclosure of prices and a beefier state database at FloridaHealthFinder.gov. After a Florida Cabinet meeting Tuesday, he said he wants third-party review of prices, as well.
“This comes down to making sure all of our patients have the opportunity to get the information so they can make an informed decision, no different than the decision they would make if they’re going to buy any other product or service,” Scott said Tuesday.
What the governor hasn’t addressed is how other parts of the health care industry would be affected, an important component as hospitals do not set their rates in a vacuum, nor are they the only parties in contracts that govern the costs of health care. Health plans and drug companies play a significant role as well.
Scott acknowledged that the whole industry ought to be part of the conversation, but said that “my reform that I’m proposing is with regard to hospitals.”
WHAT JACK LATVALA IS READING — FAKE YBOR CITY RISING IN GEORGIA FOR BEN AFFLECK’S PROHIBITION-ERA FILM via Paul Guzzo of the Tampa Tribune
With its well-preserved history as an immigrant community, cigar rolling capital of the world, and Mafia hotbed, Ybor City seems ripe for Hollywood.
Ben Affleck agreed, and bought the film rights to “Live by Night” — a novel by former Tampa area writer Dennis Lehane set in Ybor City during the 1920s and 1930s about a petty Boston thief’s rise to successful Gulf Coast rum runner.
Unfortunately for Tampa, the absence of state tax incentives for movie productions coupled with Affleck’s wish to work close to home means filming of “Live by Night” will bypass the original.
Instead, a fake Ybor City is being erected 270 miles northeast in Brunswick, Georgia.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Representatives from U.S. Sugar and Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of Florida will address the upcoming sugarcane harvest and concerns raised by critics about cane burning on a media conference call this morning at 11:00 a.m. Hendry and Glades County Health Director Pat Dobbins will join sugar industry reps to discuss the practice’s importance to sugarcane production and its minimal ecological impact.
NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS
Erin Choy, National Strategies: Agency for State Technology
Jason Unger, GrayRobinson: iPic Entertainment
CONTEXT FLORIDA: JEB BUSH’S REFRESHING BEHAVIOR, MAKING CORPORATIONS PAY AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST FLORIDA
On Context Florida: Sarah Maricle Ayers says that Jeb Bush’s sluggish movement in the national polls betrays the refreshingly presidential-like behavior he has been exhibiting. Forcing corporations to pay what they owe can be a tough job. But when Paul Heroux worked in the insurance business and was responsible for getting a corporation to provide compensation for causing an accident or injury, he says he always collected. It’s time to make corporations accountable for their responsibilities, he writes. They should pay what they owe. Shannon Nickinson believes this should be the University of West Florida’s time in the sun. Pensacola’s university saw funding restored this year following a marked improvement on the new state-mandated performance metrics. The measurements – 10 in all from academic progression rates, to graduation rates to median first-year salaries for graduates — are Florida’s latest salvo in the ever-expanding effort to apply accountability to education from preschool to higher education.
Visit Context Florida to dig in.
RICH LIST: 25 SOUTH FLORIDIANS AMONG FORBES’ 400 WEALTHIEST AMERICANS via Nina Lincoff of the South Florida Business Journal
To find where the money is in Florida, look to the tri-county area. Approximately 71 percent of the wealthiest Floridians reside in South Florida, according to the annual Forbes 400 ranking of the richest Americans, released Tuesday.
Thomas Peterffy of Palm Beach topped all Floridians on the list at $13.5 billion. Next was Carnival Cruise’s Micky Arison with $7.7 billion followed by Charles Johnson, Randal Kirk and Zirk Diff.
The 25 South Floridians of the total 35 Floridians that made the list this year have a combined worth of $95.25 billion. The richest South Floridians come from industries like real estate, money managing, pharmaceuticals, cruise lines, and more.
The majority of the richest South Floridians reside in Palm Beach County with 17, followed by Miami-Dade County with six and Broward County with two.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY to Jason Gonzalez, Tampa Bay political consultant Steve Lapinski and Chris Schoonover.
