With 29 weeks until votes are counted in Florida, incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is the current underdog in a fight against Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV. According to this poll, it’s Crist 46%, Scott 41%.
According to the survey, Scott leads 2-to-1 in Northeast Florida, and more narrowly leads in Southwest Florida (which includes the Tampa Bay region). Crist leads 3-to-2 in Southeast Florida and more narrowly in Central Florida and Northwest Florida. A small turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Scott. A large turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Crist. Scott holds 71% of the Republican base, compared to Crist, who holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Conservatives vote 7-to-1 Republican. Liberals vote 8-to-1 Democratic. Importantly, moderates break 7-to-4 for the Democrat Crist.
Scott and Crist are effectively even among college graduates. Crist leads among less educated voters. Scott leads among upper-income voters. Crist leads among lower-income voters. Middle-income voters split. Scott leads narrowly among white voters; Crist leads overwhelmingly among African Americans, and materially among Asian Americans. Both Cubans and non-Cuban Hispanics lean slightly Republican — but that is based on a small sample and caution should be exercised in projecting those numbers out to Election Day.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 940 state-of-Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/10/14 through 04/14/14. Of the adults, 799 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 502 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the Nov. 4 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
