Survey USA poll: Charlie Crist 46%, Rick Scott 41%

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With 29 weeks until votes are counted in Florida, incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is the current underdog in a fight against Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV. According to this poll, it’s Crist 46%, Scott 41%.

According to the survey, Scott leads 2-to-1 in Northeast Florida, and more narrowly leads in Southwest Florida (which includes the Tampa Bay region). Crist leads 3-to-2 in Southeast Florida and more narrowly in Central Florida and Northwest Florida. A small turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Scott. A large turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Crist. Scott holds 71% of the Republican base, compared to Crist, who holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Conservatives vote 7-to-1 Republican. Liberals vote 8-to-1 Democratic. Importantly, moderates break 7-to-4 for the Democrat Crist.

Scott and Crist are effectively even among college graduates. Crist leads among less educated voters. Scott leads among upper-income voters. Crist leads among lower-income voters. Middle-income voters split. Scott leads narrowly among white voters; Crist leads overwhelmingly among African Americans, and materially among Asian Americans. Both Cubans and non-Cuban Hispanics lean slightly Republican — but that is based on a small sample and caution should be exercised in projecting those numbers out to Election Day.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research940 state-of-Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/10/14 through 04/14/14. Of the adults, 799 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 502 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the Nov. 4 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.  

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.