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538

New Florida poll has some eye-popping cross tabs, pollster responds

in 2017 by

With a new poll showing Donald Trump ahead by four points in Florida (46-42), he now inches ahead by one-tenth of one percent in the Real Clear Politics average. With Hillary Clinton’s email troubles and new concerns over her health, Trump could continue to rise, provided he sticks to his script. That is never a certainty. First, we should all wish Secretary Clinton a quick recovery. No one should want their candidate to benefit from an opponent’s medical issue. On…

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Tampa Bay is like America, but more so

in The Bay and the 'Burg/Top Headlines by

Many red state politicians — and even POLITICO co-founder Jim VandeHei in a recent op-ed — often talk of a “real America,” a nation apart from the latte liberal denizens of our urban, coastal cities. But new research has found one of the most “normal” cities in America is right here in Florida — the greater Tampa Bay area. FiveThirtyEight’s Jed Kolko recently compared each major U.S. metropolitan area to the U.S. overall, based on age, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity, and discovered none…

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Toward fact-based punditry

in Uncategorized by

John Sides asks if 538 is good for political science: I think 538 helps political science by showing people, and especially journalists, that you can use quantitative evidence to understand politics. That’s one reason I’m glad for its new relationship with The New York Times. I don’t always agree with all of Nate Silver’s analyses — see, e.g., here or here — but they are quite an improvement over the views of people who think that a conversation with three…

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538: Analysis of Virginia vote

in Uncategorized by

In trying to understand Creigh Deeds’ smashing win in yesterday’s VA gubernatorial primary, turnout patterns are one obvious thing to focus on. But the more you stare at the numbers, the more Deeds’ win looks like a triumph of persuasion for him rather than any failure in mobilization efforts by his rivals. The total vote topped 320,000 or 6.4 percent of registered voters. That was well above the 250,000 that state officials expected, and over double the turnout in the…

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