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538: Analysis of Virginia vote

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In trying to understand Creigh Deeds’ smashing win in yesterday’s VA gubernatorial primary, turnout patterns are one obvious thing to focus on. But the more you stare at the numbers, the more Deeds’ win looks like a triumph of persuasion for him rather than any failure in mobilization efforts by his rivals. The total vote topped 320,000 or 6.4 percent of registered voters. That was well above the 250,000 that state officials expected, and over double the turnout in the…

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