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Incumbents have better-than-average year in 2016, says Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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It was a good year to run as an incumbent according to an article published Thursday in Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “Looking over the down-ballot outcome, there’s one inescapable conclusion in a year that was defined by a political outsider, Donald Trump, winning the presidency: It was still a really good year to run as an incumbent in 2016, all things considered,” the report states. Since the end of World War II, about 93 percent of incumbent representatives, 80 percent of…

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This election cycle proves yet again that incumbency is the best advantage a candidate can have

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One great truism in modern politics: the greatest advantage a candidate will ever have (for either party) is to be an incumbent. To understand how incumbency offers politicians a distinct benefit, the folks at Ballotpedia crunch some numbers for 2016. Of more than 6,700 seats to be decided in this election cycle, only 123 incumbents lost in the primaries. Since about 10 percent of incumbents are defeated on average, that means a majority of the remaining losses will take place in…

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Mitch Kates loses his shit

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Is anyone else beginning to think that local Democratic political consultant Mitch Kates is, to put it succinctly, losing his shit? The Bay Buzz writes today about a letter Kates wrote to Eric Forcade, a very minor Tea Party candidate who dropped out of the race to challenge incumbent Congressman Bill Young: “…calling him ‘a coward, hypocrite and referring to Forcade, a Pinellas sheriff’s officer, as “you and your crazy 9-12ers” and “nut-ball demigod hero Glenn Beck.” Okay, so maybe Kates is…

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