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2016 presidential election predictions we can already make

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In the past few decades, swing states, once major wild cards in presidential politics, are becoming scarcer. When Florida decided the 2000 election with 537 votes, 12 states helped elect the president by less than five percentage points. In 2012, the number of swing states dropped to four. For today’s Electoral College, 40 of 50 states have voted for the same party in all four elections since 2000, says Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley in today’s POLITICO. Of the…

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranking moves Marco Rubio to second place

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In the race for the White House, still a year and a half away, Florida is opening up as the critical Electoral College prize in 2016. Although much can still happen in the presidential contest, Sabato’s Crystal Ball writers Geoffrey Skelley, Kyle Kondik, and Larry Sabato find it increasingly clear: for the GOP to win 270 or more electoral votes, it must include Florida. As Republicans eye the Florida prize, it seems appropriate that the two top-tier hopefuls in Crystal…

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Democrat Patrick Murphy announces run for U.S. Senate

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South Florida Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy has declared his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Florida in 2016. “It just boils down to where I think being in the U.S. Senate, we can really have a great impact,” Murphy told SaintPetersBlog late Sunday afternoon by phone, giving his first interview after declaring that he is a candidate for office. Murphy becomes the first official entrant from either party to announce his intentions for the seat currently occupied by Marco Rubio.…

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Mel Martinez resignation: The aftermath

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First and foremost, Charlie Crist says he won’t appoint himself. says Crist may end “pulling out his hair” over decision. John Cornyn says Martinez’s resignation “does not change the landscape.” Michael Barone says it should be Jeb Bush. HuffPo speculates Martinez resigned to screw Crist. Red County says it should be Marco Rubio. Susan MacManus is unsure. Kendrick Meek is magnanimous. New York Times suggests Clay Shaw. Not One Red Cent weighs in. Palm Beach Post has quotes from…

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