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Nate Silver

‘Big data’ questioned in wake of Donald Trump’s surprising victory

in 2017 by

For an American public that relies on data for everything from where to find the best taco to the likely victor in a baseball game, Election Day offered a jarring wake-up: The data was wrong. Donald Trump‘s stunning electoral win came despite prognosticators’ overwhelming insistence he would lose. And it has forced many to question not just political polling, but other facets of life that are being informed and directed by data. “If ‘big data’ is not that useful for…

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The smartest guy in the room thinks Hillary Clinton will win Florida

in Peter by

With four days before The. Most. Important. Election. Ever. comes to its conclusion, it’s difficult to separate the signal from the noise when it comes to polling and predictions. Right now, everyone is as much an expert about politics as they are in theories about how “Game of Thrones” will end. So many people are nervous about the outcome of the election, they will hang on to a single shred of data — “But Hispanic NPA early voting is up 28…

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Joe Henderson: Assault on polling begins in ShameFest 2016

in 2017/Top Headlines by

As we approach the home stretch of ShameFest 2016 — otherwise known as the election — we should take a moment to ponder one of the great moments the last time the nation chose a president. It was election night 2012 and Fox News, accurately as it turned out, declared President Barack Obama had won Ohio and, thus, a second term as commander in chief. But GOP operative Karl Rove didn’t agree. He argued live on camera that his own…

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New Florida poll has some eye-popping cross tabs, pollster responds

in 2017 by

With a new poll showing Donald Trump ahead by four points in Florida (46-42), he now inches ahead by one-tenth of one percent in the Real Clear Politics average. With Hillary Clinton’s email troubles and new concerns over her health, Trump could continue to rise, provided he sticks to his script. That is never a certainty. First, we should all wish Secretary Clinton a quick recovery. No one should want their candidate to benefit from an opponent’s medical issue. On…

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Which MLB teams were the best and worst of all time?

in Sports by

For years debates have raged about which major league baseball team was the best of all time. Was it the 1927 Yankees, or 1961 Yankees? Maybe the 1976 Reds? If the rankings would include all teams, where would the pennant-winning 2008 Rays fit into all of this? Do either of Miami’s World Series-winning teams of 1997 and 2003 have a place? Thanks to Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight, we have some answers. According to the Elo rating system,…

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Amateur blogosphere, RIP

in Uncategorized by

The New York Times announced that it will incorporate fivethirtyeight.com into the NYT website: This summer The New York Times will incorporate the political blog FiveThirtyEight into the political news section of NYTimes.com. Blogger, polling expert and founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver will continue to oversee the blog and will also be a regular contributor to The New York Times and to The New York Times Sunday Magazine. Only five years ago, the progressive political blogosphere was still predominately a…

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NYT: We can help Nate Silver take FiveThirtyEight to a new level

in Apolitical by

“There’s a real startup quality to FiveThirtyEight,” Times digital editor Jim Roberts tells Megan Garber. “And we’ve got a giant infrastructure here of graphics editors, multimedia producers, interactive technologists — a lot of people who are big fans of Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight, who are really eager to work with him. They’ll make his blog better.” Continue reading here.

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