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Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls Florida’s 2018 gubernatorial race a ‘toss-up’ in initial ratings

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With so much uncertainty about who is in or out of the 2018 Florida gubernatorial race, it’s not surprising that at least one political seer has deemed Florida too-close-to-call. Initial 2018 gubernatorial ratings released Thursday by Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranked Florida as one of 10 states considered a “toss-up” going into the 2018 election cycle. The ratings found more than half of the 38 gubernatorial races on the ballot next year either start in “competitive toss-up or leans Republican/Democratic categories.”…

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Florida ‘crossover’ congressional districts give Democrats glimmer of hope in 2018

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Democrats could be in for more election woes in 2018, according to a new post from political blog Sabato’s Crystal Ball. In the post, author Kyle Kondik gives a rundown of the 2016 cycle’s “crossover” congressional seats – districts that voted for one party on the congressional level, and another for president. There were 26 such seats in the 2012 cycle, and 2016 saw an increase to 35. A dozen of the crossover seats sent a Democrat to Congress and backed…

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Incumbents have better-than-average year in 2016, says Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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It was a good year to run as an incumbent according to an article published Thursday in Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “Looking over the down-ballot outcome, there’s one inescapable conclusion in a year that was defined by a political outsider, Donald Trump, winning the presidency: It was still a really good year to run as an incumbent in 2016, all things considered,” the report states. Since the end of World War II, about 93 percent of incumbent representatives, 80 percent of…

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Report: Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College lead continues to grow

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The electoral map keeps changing, but new rankings don’t favor Donald Trump. Sabato’s Crystal Ball released updated Electoral College ratings, moving several deep red states out of the “safe Republican” or “leans Republican” columns. The ratings changes push Hillary Clinton to 352 electoral votes, the highest the organization has ranked her the entire election cycle. “Our conclusion is simple,” according to analysis released Thursday. “As we reassess our Electoral College ratings, we don’t think any new states are moving toward…

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts Hillary Clinton will still get Democratic nod

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A University of Virginia-backed political blog predicts former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will still win the Democratic presidential nomination. According to a report released Thursday, Clinton’s prospective victory would be despite lingering controversy over her use of a private email account for official business or the possibility of Vice President Joe Biden entering the race. The report, put out by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, combines recent polling data with Democratic Primary turnout statistics from the 2008 election cycle. Fox News’…

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranking moves Marco Rubio to second place

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In the race for the White House, still a year and a half away, Florida is opening up as the critical Electoral College prize in 2016. Although much can still happen in the presidential contest, Sabato’s Crystal Ball writers Geoffrey Skelley, Kyle Kondik, and Larry Sabato find it increasingly clear: for the GOP to win 270 or more electoral votes, it must include Florida. As Republicans eye the Florida prize, it seems appropriate that the two top-tier hopefuls in Crystal…

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