The Clinton algebra

There is already some political conventional wisdom developing around the 2016 presidential election.  It goes something like this:

Former Secretary of State, former Senator, and former First Lady Hillary Clinton will enter the race for President of the United States, buoyed by an incredible grassroots campaign (already being built today).  This now-formidable effort will be undergirded by activists and Democratic operatives, all of whom were either loyal to her during her doomed 2008 run, served her in the U.S. Senate, served her at the U.S. Department of State, have been long-time Clinton allies, were in her husband’s administration*, or all of the above.  Many of them will be fueled by a never-quite-dissipated sense of injustice, that the election was stolen by then-Senator Barack Obama.

As the Clinton Juggernaut officially kicks off with her announcement, anyone else considering a run on the Democratic side will immediately be scared off.  It’s a good guess that establishment Republicans are already scared of a Clinton candidacy.  Former Speaker Newt Gingrich called her “unbeatable,” and pundits have been writing about the Republican inability to compete against her for the better part of a year.  Besides, when Republicans get scared, they tend to do alarmingly dumb things: witness the incredibly offensive “Slap Hillary” video “game”.

So with the national Republican Party still in disarray — will they nominate Rand Paul?  Maybe Mike Huckabee will run again!  How about Jeb Bush?  Sure, another Bush, why not?  Hey, maybe Ted Cruz!  He did just release his birth certificate, after all! — and the Democratic field cleared, we’re basically just waiting over the course of the next three years for President Hillary Clinton to be inaugurated.  Right?

Oh, I don’t know.  What if we change one variable?  How about:  Hillary doesn’t clear the field.  Posted here earlier was a quick piece on Joe Biden thinking positively enough of his work as Vice President that he could give 2016 a shot.  Why not?  He has been an able and incredibly influential Senator and now a capable and very visible VP.  Also, Uncle Joe doesn’t strike me as the type to back down just because the Clintonites want him to, although I will concede “he hasn’t ruled out a bid” isn’t quite the same as well over 600,000 Facebook likes, or 72,000 Twitter followers.

Joe Biden — and others — could make the primary tough.  But if anyone has experience in a tough primary (losing a tough primary, I should say) it’s Hillary Clinton.  

Here’s another change to the algebra for your consideration: Republicans get their stuff together.  It’s a long-shot, sure, and the math just can’t be made to go their way.  But can we agree on two things?  One, after eight years of President Obama, folks may want a change from, well, hope and change.  Enough to tilt things to the GOP?  I doubt it, but I sure wouldn’t take the bet if you offered.  Two, that the GOP has lots (lots) of experience beating up, as it were, on both Clintons.  All they have to do is crack open the old Clinton archives and all the ugly attacks, profound against the Clintons particularly, come flooding back.  And we know that negative attacks work.    

One last algebra switcheroo for you to consider: Hillary Clinton doesn’t run.

Why would she?  To spend hour after hour, day after day, months, even, phoning the same fat-cats over and over, raising endless rivers of cash?  To hit the never-ending campaign trail, small Iowa towns, one after the other after the other, row after row down a straight stretch of road, like cornfields in the still evening air.  Tiny hamlets with quirky names that all run together, packed diners, gas stations, breakfast joints in New Hampshire.  Trying to sleep at the back of the bus on some endless South Carolina highway, on your way to yet another meet-and-greet at the town square with the local Committeeman and the church elders and the kid who won the contest at her middle school and the terrible acoustics, sun in your eyes, reporters mobbing you.

All that, all that nonstop motion.  All that energy.  Almost all of it — if you’re lucky! — poured into discerning policy nuance, the questions, what is she about, what does she stand for.  And there will be questions, the most grating of which, you can be assured, will be: “How will you be different from Obama?”

Why would she do it?  To go through all the negative nonsense again?  And you know there’ll be negative stuff again.  At this point, who among us can really doubt it?

Trust me: she will.  If she’s crunched the numbers — and I assure you that she has — and can see a path to victory, whether it’s a tough fight or not, she damn sure will do it.

Disclosure: As I was. I also served in the Office of the First Lady for about a year during my time in DC.