Larry Sabato and his analysts at the University of Virginia reviewed the electoral map with an eye for states Gingrich probably would struggle to win in a general election. Their standard electoral map, including leaners, shows 247 electoral votes for Obama, 206 for the Republicans and 85 toss-ups. Their Newt map gives 303 electoral votes to Obama, 181 for Gingrich and 54 toss-ups. Here’s the explanation: “Let’s be honest here: Romney’s the closest thing out there to a generic Republican available. He is not going to steal the presidency away from the incumbent if Obama’s having a good year and the economy is solid. Rather, if the country is ready to make a change, then Romney would be a credible alternative. The national polling numbers bear that out; they also show that Gingrich, at least right now, is not seen as a similarly acceptable alternative.
Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.