The stupidest, still-shaking-my-head analysis of the special election in Congressional District 13 is this part of Adam Smith’s election eve blog post.
Smith writes:
“Alex Sink allies are counting on a higher turnout, more like 200,000, to deliver her the seat even though Republican turnout is typically higher on election day. Democrats do appear to have a stronger GOTV operation – because Ashley Walker & Co. know Democrats need a lot more pushing to vote – so a big turnout could put Sink over the top. Two hundred thousand-plus voters does seem plausible, even for a special election, given the amount of attention on the race. In 2010, more than 216,000 voters turned out in that district.”
Putting aside the opinion that “Democrats … have a stronger GOTV operation” because I do respect Sink campaign manager Ashley Walker’s capabilities, there is no way — NO WAY — that 200,000 voters will turn out for this election.
There have been approximately 125,000 ballots already cast in this race. To get to 200K, that would mean more than 70,000 voters will have to turn out on Election Day to vote in a special election between two widely-recognized-to-be flawed candidates.
Seventy thousand voters turning out today is just not going to happen.
Comparing turnout in a March special election to turnout in a 2010 general election — with a gubernatorial race at the top of the ballot — isn’t very smart, either.
Sink may beat Jolly, but seventy thousand voters are not heading to the polls today. I genuinely doubt if half that amount will turn out today.
