For the Florida Democratic Party, it is the best of times and it is the worst of times.
On one hand, it’s looking at its best shot at regaining the governor’s office in more than a decade. On the other hand, internal fighting between Chair Allison Tant and Rep. Darryl Rouson has all but shut down its legislative campaign arm, making it a distinct possibility that the party could find itself in worse shape, at least in terms of representation in the Florida House and Senate, than it is now.
The dichotomy is downright Dickensian.
There are two key elections approaching in the next six weeks that will say a lot about the state of the party.
On October 15, Democrat Amanda Murphy will face-off against Republican Bill Gunter in a special election in House District 36, the seat formerly held by Mike Fasano. A poll for the Democratic Party by Hamilton Campaigns shows a slight advantage, but within the margin of error, for Murphy.
On November 5, voters in St. Petersburg will decide between incumbent Bill Foster and challenger Rick Kriseman in what polls suggest is a deadlocked mayoral race. The race is suppose to be non-partisan, but Democrats have rallied behind former state Representative Rick Kriseman, while the GOP is backing Foster.
To maintain a semblance of relevance, the Florida Democratic Party needs a win in at least one of these two races. To build momentum for 2014, it needs to run the table. Losing both races is just not an option for the FDP.
It will be difficult for Murphy to pull off a win in HD 36, especially now that Mike Fasano has said he’s not endorsing either candidate in that race. If Fasano had endorsed Murphy, she would have a better than average shot in this Democratic-performing district. But without it, Gunter and the Republicans may be too well-financed and well-organized to beat.
A question about this race I recently asked a senior Democratic strategist is who is in charge of the Democratic Party’s operations in HD 36. I mean, seriously, who is the FDP’s point person? Rep. Rouson is struggling to hang on to his position as incoming Democratic Leader. His political director, Chris Mitchell, was fired by Tant. This leaves who for the Dems?
As for the party’s prospects in St. Pete, they are a lot healthier. While the Tampa Bay Times has Kriseman up by just one in its poll, a survey by the more reliable St. Pete Polls shows Kriseman up by six points among voters who cast a ballot in the primary and up ten among registered voters.
A win in St. Pete would set the table for state Democrats in 2014, while immediately giving it a base of power in Florida’s ultimate battleground region.
But snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is something of a strong suit for Florida Democrats. It would surprise no one to see the party shut out in 2013. But were it to go two-for-two, that certainly would bode well for 2014.
