Turnout update: GOP early voting vote advantage now at 8.3%

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Coming off a “very good Saturday,” Steve Schale’s most recent turnout memo notes that the Democrats cut the Republican advantage by nearly a point: 8.3 percent from 9.2 percent.

Schale compares it to the 2010 gubernatorial election, where the same-point GOP lead was 18.1 percent.

Undoubtedly, the first Saturday of early voting statewide provided a substantial African American turnout.

Compared to 2010, Schale says African American turnout on first Saturday was up in Duval County by 191 percent; 125 percent in Dade and 60 percent in Broward.

African American turnout for the entire election in those three counties is up: 44 percent in Broward, 61 percent in Dade and 195 percent in Duval County.

One county showing the biggest shift from 2010 is Osceola, where there was a boost in vote share of more than 18 percent compared to 2010, versus the statewide average of 9.8 percent.

The Democratic advance seems to be widespread across Florida, with improved vote share in 53 of the state’s 67 counties, accounting for more than 98.5 percent of all votes statewide.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.