What if Romney were to capture 50% of the vote in Florida?

in Uncategorized by

Sure, it sounds implausible, but it’s not impossible…

What if Mitt Romney were to capture 50% of the vote in Florida?

Before you dismiss the notion out of hand, do the math from the bottom up.  Santorum is polling at 14% and Paul is at 11%. But Santorum isn’t even in the state today and Paul isn’t contesting Florida.  So take two points off of Santorum and one off of Paul and you’re at a total of 22% of the vote.

That leaves 78% of the vote up for grabs.  I can show you four polls which have come out over the last 48 hours which show Gingrich polling at or about 28%. If Gingrich were to tap out at 28% that would leave Romney with just enough room to reach 50% of the vote.

To Romney, winning 50% of the vote in Florida would be almost as good as making it to the Celestial Kingdom.

Taking a majority of the Florida vote would be the kind of electoral game-changer that would put a lot of pressure on Gingrich to drop out. But, as George Stephanopoulos told Diane Sawyer, on who could get Gingrich to pull out only one person could put enough pressure on Newt to consider dropping out: “‘Maybe his wife Callista — that would be about it.”

I doubt Romney can get to the magical 50% number, but what if over-performs today? He likely has a huge head-start in early voting.  He has a massive operation in place to get out the vote.  Even the weather is optimal.

50% is possible.  Not probable, but possible.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.