Why is Santorum over-performing his poll numbers?

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FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver: “Rick Santorum did something unusual on Tuesday: he won a state, Mississippi, in which no poll had shown him with a lead. … He did the same thing in Iowa … the Mississippi polls implied that Mr. Santorum had only about a 2 percent chance of winning the state, according to the model. … Over all, he has beaten his polling forecasts by an average of 2.1 percentage points. … Why might he be beating his numbers? I can think of four major hypotheses: Voter enthusiasm. … Cellphone-only voters. … Southern hospitality and social desirability bias. … Tactical voting.”

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.