Yesterday, I blogged about the possibility that Democrat Dwight Dudley might pull a Brandes against Republican Jeff Brandes and challenge him for his Senate seat, thereby creating an open seat in HD 68.
Pulling a Brandes refers to the first-term reps decision in 2012 to run for the Senate instead of seeking re-election to the House because the numbers in the Senate seat in a presidential election cycle were more attractive than facing-off, even as an incumbent, against a well-funded Democrat in a House race.
Yesterday, I wrote: “In a midterm election, when Republicans historically run stronger than Democrats, it might be easier for Dudley to challenge Brandes in Senate District 22 than play defense against expected challenger Billy Young, who has signaled his intent to run in 2014.”
A rather informed reader gently pushed-back, arguing that SD 22 is actually much better for a Republican than is HD 68.
Here’s is the latest data: HD 68 2012 Performance: Obama: 55%, Romney: 45%; Nelson: 63%, Mack: 37%. SD 22 2012 Performance: Obama: 50.38%; Romney: 49.62%. Nelson: 59%, Mack: 41%.
There’s no arguing with those numbers, but my argument that it might be “easier” for Dudley was not based on numbers alone.
One factor that might entice Dudley to run for the State Senate is that there are no open Senate seats up in 2014, meaning the Democrats could focus whatever resources they have leftover after protecting their few incumbents on the SD 22 race.
Of course, if the race for SD 22 comes down to a matter of resources, it’s difficult a scenario where the Democrats out-resource Brandes and the Republicans.