In September, I wrote that, to maintain a semblance of relevance, the Florida Democratic Party needed a win either the special election for House District 36 on October 15 OR St. Petersburg’s mayoral race on November 5.
Well, with Amanda Murphy’s win on Tuesday, Florida Democrats have already done what I think they needed to do for 2013. However, if they can go two-for-two in these two months, maybe the Florida Democratic Party will have finally righted its ship.
As it stands, former Democratic State Representative Rick Kriseman holds a small, but consistent and growing, lead over incumbent Bill Foster in St. Pete’s mayoral race. The campaign has turned increasingly partisan, despite both candidates best attempts to pretend they are the least partisan choice.
The Florida Democratic Party, as well as its allies on the left such as Progress Florida, is doing more to help Kriseman than the Florida GOP is doing to help Foster. This means the FDP has more to win — and lose — based on the outcome of Foster vs. Kriseman. Were Kriseman to win, it would be that second step the FDP would like to take heading into 2014.
Yet there are other greeenshoots of hope for Florida’s Democrats. The chance to pick up Congressional District 13 now that Bill Young is retiring is a distinct possibility, especially if Alex Sink decides to run. Our latest polling shows she is the clear favorite of CD 13 voters to succeed Young in Congress.
Meanwhile, “The Announcement” from Charlie Crist is forthcoming — probably not in October as most in the traditional media have predicted, but rather in November after new campaign regulations allowing statewide candidates to accept larger individual checks kick-in — and, no matter how you feel about Crist, this will change Florida’s political landscape like no other event.
One win in one House race does not a trend make. As Steve Schale wrote yesterday, Murphy’s win is but a canary, not a predictor.
Yet, for the first time in a long time, Florida’s Democrats may have momentum on their side.
