Patrick Murphy Archives - Page 5 of 52 - SaintPetersBlog

Iraq veteran says Marco Rubio insulted Kurdish forces in Senate debate

While discussing U.S. policy in Syria during the Senate debate between Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy in Davie on Wednesday night, Rubio one-upped his Democratic opponent by chiding him for saying that the Kurdish resistance fighters known as the Peshmerga were fighting in Iraq, not Syria. Now a Democratic Representative and Iraq veteran is calling on Rubio to apologize for “using these brave soldiers as a punchline.”

“As a veteran of the war in Iraq, I know exactly what kind of sacrifice the Kurdish forces are making right now in the fight to recapture Mosul in Iraq,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego, an Arizona Democrat, in a statement released by the Murphy campaign after the debate. “The Peshmerga are some of the world’s bravest and most elite warriors. They have been some of our strongest allies in the multidimensional regional battle to defeat ISIS, a conflict that recognizes no national borders. Patrick was right — the Kurdish fighters are key in the fight against ISIS.”

The remark occurred when the Miami Herald’s Patricia Mazzei asked about how the candidates would deal with the more than five-year conflict in Syria. Rubio said currently it was important to ensure the war-torn nation not become a safe haven for terrorists.

Murphy said it was crucial to get rid of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and that meant maintaining alliances with various actors in the Middle East.

Rubio countered by saying he wasn’t sure what alliances Murphy was referring to, “The one with the Kurds? The Syrian Kurds or the Turks? This is the situation this president has put us in.”

“It is important to note how many factions are in Syria right now,” responded Murphy. “Whether it’s the Kurds or the Peshmerga, Iraq, Hezbollah, Russia, the moderate rebel forces that we have tried to arm in many ways, and it’s important to talk about them.” He then pivoted towards denouncing Rubio for supporting Donald Trump, who he said wants to “tear up those alliances.”

The moderator indicated that the exchange was spent, but Rubio said he needed to get in a response.

“Congressman there are no Peshmerga in Syria. The Peshmerga are Iraqi,” Rubio said.

Murphy interjected, saying, “Yes, and they are helping us fight.”

“In Iraq, not in Syria,” Rubio responded. “The Syrian Kurds, in fact, don’t get along with the Iraqi Kurds which is adding more complexity to the region.”

In fact, there are reports Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters have entered into the fighting in Syria.

Al-Jazeera reported in July that some Peshmerga soldiers held back from the front line in fighting the Islamic State in Iraq have crossed the border into Syria to fight with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, where soldiers can move from unit to unit with fewer restrictions.

The Murphy camp also provided a link to a CNN story from 2014 reporting of Iraqi-Kurdish Peshmerga fighters arriving in the besieged northern Syrian city of Kobani. And they trotted out Rep. Gallego, who was in the hall watching and supporting Murphy during the debate, to rebut Rubio’s comment.

“Tonight, Marco Rubio tried to use these brave soldiers as a punch line,” Gallego said Wednesday night. “He should apologize to our allies as they are fighting and dying on the battlefield right now. If Marco Rubio actually showed up to work at the Senate, he would know better than to insult the people fighting this war.”

The Rubio campaign maintains the Peshmerga are not the primary Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State in Syria.

“Marco met with Iraqi Kurds earlier this year in Erbil,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, a Rubio spokeswoman, on Thursday. “The Peshmerga, who are Iraqi Kurds, have been fantastic allies in the fight against ISIL in Iraq. They are not the primary Kurdish force fighting ISIL in Syria. Patrick Murphy claims to be a national security expert but yet again appears to be embellishing his resume.”

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Marco Rubio 49%, Patrick Murphy 43% according to new UNF poll

A University of North Florida poll released Thursday shows Sen. Marco Rubio poised to win re-election.

The survey, from the UNF Public Opinion Research Lab, shows Rubio ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Patrick Murphy, 49 to 43 percent. Polling was conducted Oct. 20-25.

“Rubio is maintaining his six-percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month,” said Dr. Michael Binder, research director of the Public Opinion Research Lab. “Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy,”

Rubio has a three-point edge with NPA voters (44 to 41 percent). However, the biggest stunner in the poll is that 17 percent of Democrats surveyed choose the Republican incumbent over the Democratic challenger. That’s compared to 10 percent of Republicans swinging Murphy’s way.

The gender breakdown is worth noting as well. Predictably, Rubio leads Murphy 55 percent to 38 percent with men. However, with women, Murphy only leads Rubio 46 percent to 44 percent … within the 3.39 percent margin of error.

The survey was conducted by live phone calls, and assumes an electorate 40 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat and 20 percent NPA.

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Mitch Perry Report for 10.27.16 – Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy battle it one last time

So much in the news today to discuss, but let’s start (and end) with a review of last night’s debate between Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy.

If you were scoring at home (congratulations if you were, to paraphrase Keith Olbermann from his ESPN days), you might have had Rubio up by a few points at the end, but like the first debate, it was relatively competitive throughout.

Rubio has a lot more experience on the debate stage, which is why Murphy should have debated Pam Keith and Alan Grayson in August. That’s old news, but he needed to sharpen himself up against Rubio, and that was a blown opportunity.

One of the most interesting exchanges was about the Affordable Care Act, and a reason why the Health & Human Services Department announced premiums would rise for the ACA by an average of 22 percent in the coming year.

As is pretty common knowledge, the vast majority of those people who have signed up for the plan are older and sicker. Younger folks who are healthy and (for the most part) don’t require insurance, aren’t paying into it, and are willing to suck up the fine from the I.R.S.

The ACA did have a mechanism in it to help adjust for the added risk insurers might have to take on. That’s where Rubio comes into play. As he said again last night, he led the way in stopping what he called “a bailout” to the insurance companies by blocking that mechanism from kicking in.

PolitiFact says “experts have said Rubio is wrong to call the program a bailout, and that the program is supposed to pay for itself through fees from insurers.”

Call it what you want, but Rubio says the key thing is he saved taxpayers money. Murphy takes the view that the move is hurting those people on the ACA who now have to pay these higher premiums.

When asked what his plan was in place of the ACA, Rubio said he wanted to make it easier for employers to incentivize their workers to buy tax-free plans or to give people tax credits to purchase plans, as well as create “high-risk” pools for those with pre-existing conditions. Murphy said that’s been tried in other states and found wanting.

If you didn’t see the debate, however, you could boil the candidates’ arguments down to one sentence. In the case of Rubio, it was that Murphy had accomplished nothing during his four years in Congress.

For Murphy, it was that Rubio never showed up to vote; and why wouldn’t he denounce Donald Trump?

Murphy said that A LOT. It sort of seemed a bit desperate at the end.

Obviously Chuck Schumer and the DSCC doesn’t believe they need Florida to win back the U.S. Senate. According to the Cook Political Report, the Dems are poised to win 5-7 states next month, which would get them over the top. That’s NOT including Florida.

In other news …

It’s getting closer in Florida. CNN announced this morning they have moved Florida from “leaning Democrat” to “battleground.” That’s based on a Bloomberg poll showing Trump winning in Florida that startled a few folks yesterday. A few hours later, a Florida Atlantic University poll showed Hillary Clinton back up, but only by three points, after having been up by six in the same survey two weeks earlier.

Hillary Clinton spoke before a sun-splashed crowd in downtown Tampa yesterday, warning her supporters that Donald Trump has been telling supporters he can win, and that he’s right in saying that.

Rubio continues to lead Murphy in two new polls — obviously conducted pre-debate.

The League of Conservation Voters is kicking another $100,000 for a digital ad campaign against David Jolly in the CD 13 race.

That controversial campaign ad by the DCCC that photoshopped Jolly with Trump was fodder for some Stephen Colbert humor the other night.

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Marco Rubio, Patrick Murphy spar over policy, fall back on old attacks

Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Patrick Murphy tried to to focus largely on policy during a televised debate Wednesday, but neither man could escape from attacks that have dogged them for months.

Rubio was blasted for his attendance record, one of the worst in the Senate, while Murphy was criticized his limited record congressional accomplishments. And while neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump were anywhere near the Broward College stage, both presidential hopefuls loomed large over the debate.

The debate — hosted by Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association — was the second, and likely final, time the two men shared a stage this election cycle. And it comes as Rubio continues to lead in the polls.

RealClearPolitics, a polling aggregation website, has Rubio ahead by an average of 3.6 percentage points, while Bloomberg Politics poll released earlier Wednesday showed the Miami Republican leading by 10 points.

“Here’s the choice in this election, because elections are at their best when they’re about clear choices, and this election is a clear choice,” said Rubio. “I have real, concrete achievements I can point to, things I’ve been able to do for the state of Florida. He’s been there for four years, and no one’s even noticed. This is a clear … difference.”

More than 2 million ballots have already been cast ahead of the Nov. 8 general election, and millions more people are expected to vote during the early voting period.

“Florida deserves a senator that’s going to show up to work, somebody who is going to roll up their sleeves and get things done for Florida,” said Murphy. “There’s way too much at stake to have a missing senator. We have to do more.”

Both men tried to use the debate to draw clear differences from their opponent on a variety of issues, including Cuba and the Supreme Court.

The issue of health care has loomed large in recent days, after federal officials announced premiums are expected to go up significantly next year under the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare. Premiums for a mid-level plan are expected to increase an average of 25 percent across 39 states, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. And about 1 in 5 consumers will only have plans from a single insurer to pick from.

Murphy has long said he supports the health care law, and defended that position Wednesday, while also saying there needs to be changes to make the program more affordable.

“There’s no question the Affordable Care Act was a huge step forward for our country. But the focus now has to be getting it right, working across the aisle to ensure we are fixing it, making sure we have more coverage for more people that’s affordable,” he said. “I believe we can do that, but you have to show up for work and you have to be working across the aisle.”

Murphy said Rubio has spent his time in office trying to undermine the healthcare law. Rubio opposed the Affordable Care Act, and has said he would repeal it.

But Rubio said he doesn’t want to go back to the “old system,” instead a proposing tax credits to allow Americans to buy health insurance and creating a high risk pool for people who have difficulty getting insurance.

“That is a much better approach than the system we have now, where you are forcing people on Obamacare because if they don’t they’ll get fined on their taxes,” he said.

The two men also squared off on the economy. While Florida has made gains in recent years, wages have generally been flat.

Murphy said the government should invest more in education and infrastructure to help boost wages. He also said the country needs to raise the minimum wage, saying lawmakers can “do more to help them out.”

“Anyone who is willing to work a full time job in this country shouldn’t be living in poverty,” said Murphy, who supports raising the minimum wage.

Rubio shot back, saying he understands what people are going through. He said the wage gap isn’t the only problem, the increase in the cost of living is also stretching working families thin.

“We have to become more competitive by rolling back taxes, especially on small businesses, and rolling back the regulatory burden,” said Rubio. “And we need to diversify our education choices. It doesn’t just have to be a four-year degree. We need more vocational training … we need more alternatives to traditional higher education.”

__The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Hillary Clinton warns a Tampa crowd that Donald Trump “can still win”

Hillary Clinton celebrated her 69th birthday by giving a speech in downtown Tampa on Wednesday afternoon, just as the polls are getting tighter between herself and Donald Trump.

Trump must win Florida to have any shot at getting the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency, but Clinton is also pushing hard to win in Florida, with three official campaign stops in the Sunshine State over the past two days.

“Now, Donald Trump says he can still win, and he’s right, that’s why it’s important that everyone gets out and votes,” Clinton told the crowd of a couple of thousand people who had waited hours under a warm sun to see her in Curtis Hixon Park.

Trump fans were energized with the release of a new Bloomberg Politics poll on Wednesday, which shows the Republican nominee up by two percentage points over Clinton, the first poll of Florida in a long time showing him in the lead.

The thought of a Trump presidency terrified some in the audience.

“The alternative would be quite scary, and it absolutely blows my mind that he would have that much support and that it could even be close,” said Lutz resident Susan Glickman.

Glickman’s husband, David, called the Trump candidacy a legacy of former talk-show host Jerry Springer, who he said made it acceptable for people to be angry to show how they want to solve things.

“Trump has capitalized on that anger for the sake of anger,” he said. “I think there are a lot of issues that are legitimate, but the way that he has brought it forth is anger without any substance behind it.”

Clinton took turns in her 23-minute speech laying out a positive vision if she were elected president, while also bashing Trump on a variety of topics.

“Let me tell you, if I ever need a pickup, I’m coming back to Tampa,” she said, after a group of fans began chanting “Hillary, Hillary” about five minutes into her speech.

Job one of her address was to remind voters that early voting has begun and that they need to get to the polls.

In addition to mentioning politicians who were in the crowd such as Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn and Senator Bill Nelson, she made sure to name-check other Democrats down the ballot, such as CD 13 candidate Charlie Crist, and local House candidates David Singer and Rena Frazier. She also gave some love to U.S. Senate hopeful Patrick Murphy, as he attempts to close the gap against Marco Rubio.

“He’s an independent voice and a problem solver,” she said of Murphy, mentioning his support for Planned Parenthood and comprehensive immigration reform, while adding, “he’s even brought Democrats and Republicans together to try to protect our environment and fund Everglades restoration.”

Clinton repeated much of her basic stump speech, joking that there should be no questions about her stamina after surviving four-and-a-half hours of debating Trump over the past month.

“We have seen Donald Trump insult nearly every person in America,” she said exaggerating greatly. “I just find that so intolerable, because look at Tampa, it’s a cosmopolitan city. Florida is paving the way for what our country will look like it, and we need to be lifting each other, listening to each other, respecting each other, not sowing seeds of hatred and bigotry.”

Although some of Clinton’s proposed policies, such as making colleges and public universities tuition free (for those whose parents make less than $125,000 annually) are progressive, she talked often of bringing Republicans and independents into her big tent vision for the future, and invoked GOP patron saint Ronald Reagan when going on a riff about how Trump has been “bashing” America for decades.

“Back in 1987, he took out a $100,000 ad in the New York Times criticizing President Reagan! He said our leaders were the laughingstock of the world,” she exclaimed with indignation. “So this is a guy who criticizes everybody but himself!”

There was a good proportion of females in the audience. 19-year-old University of Tampa student Eugenia Davies said that while some of her friends supported Hillary, some others are backing Trump. “They like him because of his views on immigration,” she said.”I agree with that, we do have a problem in the country with that, but his solutions are not the real solutions. I believe Hillary will take care of that. You’re going to have your issues, but how you deal with that is what matters.”

“Trump had a chance, but he dug his own grave,” said Tampa resident Marina Kauffman, who added that if Clinton were a man, “this would be a slam dunk.”

Star power was provided in the manner of actress Angela Bassett giving an enthusiast speech leading up to Clinton’s appearance. “Now here me Tampa Bay, and hear me well: This election is just a little too close to be comfortable, to sit back on the sidelines,” she warned.

This was Clinton’s forth appearance in Tampa during this election cycle (previous visits were at the Florida State Fairgrounds, USF, and Ybor City), and her fifth in the Tampa Bay area (she also appeared at the Coliseum in St. Petersburg).

With 13 days left before the election, it’s uncertain whether she will appear again, but very well could in this extremely fluid final countdown to Election Day.

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FAU poll in Florida shows Hillary Clinton at 46 percent, Donald Trump at 43 percent

Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump in Florida 46 percent to 43 percent, according to a new poll conducted by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative and released on Wednesday. However, momentum is moving with Trump. A similar survey conducted just two weeks ago had Clinton up by six points.

The survey of 500 likely Florida voters was conducted from Oct. 21-23.

As expected, Trump has a 17-point lead among white voters, 53 to 36 percent. Clinton has a 49-point lead among African-Americans, 73 to 24 percent, and leads with Hispanics, 68 to 19 percent. Clinton is winning with independents 50 to 34 percent.

Trump enjoys strong support in northern Florida, where he leads Clinton 56 to 32 percent, as well as in the central part of the state, which is breaking 49 to 38 percent in his favor. Clinton is winning overwhelmingly in South Florida, 68 to 26 percent.

In a sign of the Clinton campaign’s organizational strength, she leads among the 26 percent of respondents who said they already voted, 54 percent to 41 percent for Trump. Clinton also leads 49 to 40 percent among women voters. Trump leads among those who plan to vote on Election Day, however, 50 to 36 percent.

Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative, said it increasingly looks like this election will turn on which candidate is better able to get their supporters to the polls. “Secretary Clinton is building a substantial lead among the early voters in our sample,” he said. “That could create a difficult lead to overcome for Mr. Trump on Election Day.”

The poll also shows Marco Rubio leading over Patrick Murphy in the U.S. Senate race, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The poll also shows strong support for Amendment 2, the initiative to legalize medical marijuana in Florida, with 67 percent saying they will vote in favor of the measure. The amendment must get 60 percent support from the public on Nov. 8 to become law.

The poll was conducted in both English and Spanish, and data was collected via Interactive Voice Response. The poll was conducted Oct. 21-23 and carries a 4.3 percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

A Bloomberg Politics poll released earlier Wednesday showed Trump leading Clinton, 45 percent to 43 percent.

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Two new polls show Marco Rubio still leads Patrick Murphy in Florida Senate race

A series of recent polls have shown a tightening in the U.S. Senate race in Florida, but two new surveys released Wednesday show Marco Rubio still very much on command.

A Bloomberg Politics poll has Rubio leading Patrick Murphy by one of the biggest margins yet, 51 percent to 41 percent. A Bay News 9/News 13 poll has the race closer, with Rubio leading Murphy, 45 percent to 41 percent.

The Bloomberg poll surveyed 985 Florida registered voters from Oct. 21-24. The margin of error is 3.2 percent.

It shows Rubio’s edge over Murphy with independent voters is significant, 51 percent to 36 percent.

His biggest margins are from voters in the Panhandle (+26 points), Catholics (+24 points) and those without a college degree (+13 points). Interestingly, the two are tied with Hispanics, which has been a vulnerable point for Murphy in other Senate polls.

One of Murphy’s most frequent criticisms of Rubio is that he is unable to commit to serving a full six-year term if re-elected, and is still focused on making another run at the White House in 2020. The Bloomberg poll shows most people agree with that contention, and yet are still supporting him. When asked, “Do you think Rubio’s decision to run for Senate is more about serving the people of Florida, or more about preparing to run for president in 2020?”, 49 percent say he is gunning for the White House, while 27 percent say he is all about serving in the Senate, and 24 percent weren’t sure (Rubio said at last week’s debate that he would serve all six years in office, “God willing”).

Meanwhile, in the Bay News 9/News 13 that shows Rubio up over Murphy 45 percent to 41percent, the poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from Oct. 20-24 of 1,251 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.3 percent.

In a major difference from the Bloomberg poll, the Bay News 9/News 13 poll shows Murphy leading Rubio among independents, 38 percent to 28 percent. Another 11 percent prefer either the Libertarian candidate or one of the other non-party-affiliated candidates, and 23 percent are undecided.

Rubio is leading among Cuban, Hispanic, and white voters, while Murphy is doing favorably among black and Asian voters.

Rubio and Murphy will engage tonight at 7 p.m. in their second and final debate of the campaign season.

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Mitch Perry Report for 10.26.16 — Can Donald Trump exploit ACA premium increases?

The announcement this week that premiums for “silver” health care plans in the state-based exchanges will rise by an average of 22 percent next year has received maximum news coverage, including by political reporters who think it could an “October surprise” that benefits the Republican Party.

It is a gift to Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and other Republicans running in tight races, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out over this week, and how Hillary Clinton addresses the issue.

In Rubio’s hands, it could be a devastating talking point in tonight’s second and final Senate debate against Patrick Murphy. With polls showing the Democrat closing the gap, Rubio will need to unleash his full artillery in the statewide-aired broadcast.

But can Trump make it work for him?

Standing before dozens of his employees at his Doral golf resort Tuesday, he lamented that “what they’re going through with their healthcare is horrible because of Obamacare.”

One little problem. Most of Trump’s employees are covered by private insurance.

“There really isn’t a need for the vast majority of our employees to purchase Obamacare,” David Feder, Doral’s general manager, told reporters quickly after the political event wrapped up.

I’ve actually found that to be the case with some ACA haters over the past couple of years. They complain about their premiums going up, and then admit they actually aren’t on the ACA themselves.

Nevertheless, it’s definitely good news for Trump, and not so much for the Dems. Last month was a little better for Clinton and the Democrats on that front, when it was announced the national uninsured rate had been cut nearly in half since 2010 to 8.6 percent of the population — the first time it had ever dropped below 9 percent. That’s a substantial achievement.

According to reports, the rate increase will most likely affect people who do not qualify for government subsidies, which is around five to seven million people . Those people (which includes me personally) will feel the pinch to some extent next year, depending on what state you live in.

Clinton and Murphy have both talked about a public option, a government-run insurance program to compete with private health insurance, as a possible remedy. But they haven’t said much about it. They should. Democrats talking about “making tweaks” just isn’t going to cut it, regardless of how the election turns out.

In other news …

Republican Party of Florida Chairman Blaise Ingoglia says he thinks the battle to win Florida will be much closer than people think.

It was a wild Hillsborough County PTC meeting Tuesday, with the bottom line being — well, nothing’s changed actually, though PTC executive director Kyle Cockream says he’s the victim of a witch hunt perpetrated by the local media and PTC chairman Victor Crist.

As early voting continues, Missouri Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver visited East Tampa to admire the Sunshine State’s dedication to early voting.

The Tampa Greater Realtors is backing Democrat David Singer over Republican Jackie Toledo in the HD 60 race.

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Florida GOP Chair Blaise Ingoglia says ‘shadow’ Donald Trump vote in Florida is real

The conventional wisdom in Florida is that the Hillary Clinton campaign has created a much more robust infrastructure in the state compared to the Donald Trump campaign.

There are now 82 Hillary For America/Florida Democratic Party field offices in the state, dozens more than the Trump campaign.

Clinton and her allies have spent more than $50 million on television advertising, while Trump has spent around $30 million.

But Blaise Ingoglia, the always-fiery Republican Party of Florida chair, disputes the notion that the Clinton campaign is stronger in the Sunshine State.

Hillary Clinton and the Florida Democratic Party [were] absolutely absent over the last 22 months. They’ve had to hire all of these people over the last two months,” he said, claiming that is exactly the opposite of what the RPOF has been doing. “We had operatives on the ground working in these communities, registering people, ID-ing people, talking to people for the better part of two years; we have paid people and people we have been training for the better part of two years.”

Ingoglia’s point is that while the Trump camp may have been slow in developing, the Republican Party of Florida has been harder at work that their Democratic counterparts. “We’re knocking on doors, we’re talking to voters, we’re chasing absentee ballots. We’re doing everything that a campaign should be doing in conjunction with the Trump campaign,” he said.

Ingoglia was in Tampa making the media rounds a day after he was one of the opening speakers at Trump’s latest rally, this one before more than 15,000 people at The MidFlorida Credit Union Amphitheater in eastern Hillsborough County. Ingoglia disputes reporting that he’s been MIA at Trump events this year, saying he’s appeared in at least four Trump and/or Mike Pence rallies since the GOP convention in late July.

Earlier in the day, Democratic strategist Steve Schale tweeted Democrats were in a better position regarding the early/absentee vote at this juncture than they were in 2012 when Barack Obama ultimately won the state by less than one percent.

Ingoglia isn’t buying it.

“The first thing I would say is that if you look since 2010, the trend has been for more people to vote early and especially by vote-by-mail,” he said. “Vote-by-mail has become very popular in Florida and the Democrats have been pushing the vote-by-mail ballots very heavily since 2012, 2014, and 2016. So I’m not concerned because all the Democrats are doing are taking away early voters and Election Day voters and moving them up and getting them to vote earlier by voting absentee and early vote.”

Current polls show on average Clinton is leading Trump by approximately four percentage points in the Sunshine State. Throughout the year, however, there have been those who say that there is a “hidden Trump vote,” that isn’t being captured by pollsters. Count Blaise Ingoglia as one Republican who believes in that theory.

“That exists — that is real,” Ingoglia insisted. “If you take the number for the people coming out of the presidential preference primary who never voted before, that number was 150,000. So those people are going to be voting in the general election, and the overwhelming majority of them are going to be voting for Donald Trump. If you take into account that general elections bring out a lot more voters, I think that you can expand upon that number.”

“I think this race is going to be a lot closer than what people are predicting,” he surmised, citing the numbers from GOP stronghold Collier County to provide ballast for his argument. There was a record 7,633 participating in the first day of early voting there on Monday.

On Monday, Simone Ward, the Florida state director for Hillary for America, wrote in a memo that, “Our organizers and thousands of volunteers have been able to build a game-winning ground operation designed to engage, register, and turn out Florida’s expansive and diverse electorate. We feel confident that we will deliver the state of Florida for Hillary Clinton and Democrats up and down the ticket, but realize there’s much more work to be done.”

Ward also noted 259,000 new Democrats were added to the voting rolls this year, a seven percent advantage over the GOP, which added 206,000 registered Republicans. “In fact, Democrats have added nearly 692,000 new voters to the rolls since 2012 versus 593,000 Republicans — and the trends continue to go upward in our favor,” she wrote.

Some Democrats have been getting excited about new polls that show Senate hopeful Patrick Murphy getting closer to Marco Rubio, though there hasn’t been a credible poll showing Murphy actually leading the race.

Ingoglia predicted the GOP incumbent would win the seat by four or five percentage points.

Since being elected in an upset over Rick Scott’s choice to chair the RPOF back in January of 2015, Ingoglia has emphasized that his raison d’être has been to move Florida into the red column in the 2016 presidential election, after it went for Obama in ’08 and 2012. We asked if he feels he’s done everything he can to make that happen, acknowledging the fact that some factors are beyond his control (such as the behavior of his party’s standard-bearer).

“I will say I have an amazing bunch of people who make up the Republican Party of Florida, both staff and the members of the RPOF. We have busted our butts over the last two years preparing the party for this election. I am proud of the work that we have done, we have literally worked day and night, night and day to rebuild the party infrastructure for the future. So to answer your question, yeah, we will continue building the party after this election.”

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Poll: Marco Rubio 40%, Patrick Murphy 38%

Sen. Marco Rubio has a narrow lead over Rep. Patrick Murphy, according to a new poll of likely Florida voters.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows 40 percent of likely voters said they were backing Rubio in the U.S. Senate race, while 38 percent picked Murphy. The poll found 12 percent of voters either didn’t know or refused to say and 6 percent said they were voting for someone else.

Murphy has the support from 74 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of independent voters. The survey found 6 percent of Republicans said they were backing him.

Rubio, the poll found, has the backing of 79 percent of Republicans and 36 percent of independent voters. He also has support from across the aisle, with support from 13 percent of likely Democratic voters.

The online poll of 1,532 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 5 through Oct. 12.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll is in line with other recent surveys, which showed a tight race between the two men. According to RealClearPolitics, Rubio has an average 3.4 percentage point lead over Murphy.

The two men are scheduled to meet Wednesday for their second debate of the election cycle. The one-hour, televised debate, hosted by Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association, kicks off at 7 p.m. at Broward College in Davie. The debate will be broadcast in each of Florida’s 11 media markets and simulcast on Florida Public Radio member stations.

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