Analyzing the latest poll from Optimus showing Rick Scott up one point

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It really is hard to take polls from 0ptimus with anything but a grain of salt. If for no other reason, the very high numbers for Adrian Wyllie should make even casual observers suspect (they have him consistently in double digits, while no other pollster has him much above 7 percent.)  Secondly, it posts very low numbers for Charlie Crist and Rick Scott among their own parties. In this survey, it shows both candidates sitting at 68 percent among their respective bases and no other pollster has shown that for either in several months.  We are not sure why they score this way in 0ptimus polls, but when one pollster’s methodology leads to consistent outliers, you have to question the validity of the poll.

Oh, and did we forget to mention that they do not include cell phones in their samples?

But kudos to 0ptimus for balancing the poll by party to reflect a gubernatorial election and, also in their defense, they have kept to a consistent methodology over time. This is helpful because even with a skewed sample, the trend lines can be useful for comparison.

And this is interesting in light of the fact that this is one of the first post #Fangate polls.  (Tip-o-the-hat to St. PetePolls for being THE first.) So in understanding that its methods may have flaws, we can still learn something about the impact of a vacant lectern.

So what was the impact?

Despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth. And despite all the dire warnings about Rick Scott death certificates signed at 7:09 p.m. on a Wednesday evening.  And despite the now-cliche fan metaphors and keeping-the-boys-cool one-liners, it seems that Scott, according to 0ptimus, may have weathered the teapot tempest after all. In fact, if you are tracking 0ptimus’ numbers, Rick Scott actually grew a net 2 points.

He grew 2 points? Can that be possible? Should we imagine how well Scott would have done if he had not shown up at all?

Verdict: Thanks for the post-Fangate numbers with useful data for trendline purposes, but someone still needs to pass the salt.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.