Life and politics from the Sunshine State's best city

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Steve Vancore

Steve Vancore has 19 articles published.

Salt Shaker Test: Quinnipiac showing Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton dead heat

in 2017/Top Headlines by

How do we interpret the latest offering from Quinnipiac University showing Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a dead heat? For those who do not know me or what I look like, allow me to offer you a brief description. I am about 6” tall, have killer abs, a full head of hair and possessed with disarmingly good looks. Think George Clooney meets David Beckham. Actually, that’s what I would LIKE to look like. But I don’t. Think Michael Smerconish meets, well, someone who looks a…

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Salt Shaker Test: Is Marco Rubio closing on Donald Trump?

in 2017/Top Headlines by

The poll aggregating website, Real Clear Politics, shows a half-dozen polls released in the past three days alone. Additionally, Associated Industries of Florida has released a series of polls and a detailed analysis of their findings. And if you are paying even the slightest bit of attention, you are probably scratching your head over the differences – the WIDE differences – in Trump’s lead. Some polls have his lead over Rubio at more than 20 points, while others have the race…

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Salt Shaker Test on the new Monmouth poll: Donald Trump’s lead back down to earth

in 2017/Top Headlines by

A pattern is forming here. According to the last rounds of polls, Donald Trump’s lead in the upcoming GOP primary appears to be larger in polls conducted via auto-dialers (a.k.a. IVR technology) than those conducted via live operators. We saw late last month where the Quinnipiac numbers showed Trump up by a very strong 20 points over Marco Rubio while the AIF poll had it much closer at 7 points. The difference? Q-pac was an IVR poll while AIF’s poll was conducted using live…

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Salt Shaker Test: AIF poll says Donald Trump leads, but …

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

It’s not every day that we get two similar polls from reputable pollsters. Yesterday was such a day! Early Thursday morning, we got one from Quinnipiac and then a few hours later, Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) released a similar instrument with similar — but different — findings. What’s different? Notably, in the Q-Pac poll, Donald Trump leads by an eye-popping 16 points over Marco Rubio, while in the AIF poll, Trump still leads, but by a more manageable 7…

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Salt Shaker Test: Evaluation Donald Trump’s large lead in latest Q-PAC poll

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Quinnipiac’s latest poll is a good one, but with a slight methodology problem that could favor Donald Trump. What did the poll find? It found Trump nearly lapping what is left of the field and is 16-points ahead of the second closest candidate, Marco Rubio. If accurate (and we know the race will change between now and March 15); this could spell serious trouble for anyone hoping to challenge the front-runner. Let’s break out the salt shaker and evaluate their…

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Applying salt shaker test to Florida Southern College poll

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

Can a poll have flawed methodologies and still be relatively “accurate?” Of course it can, much in the same way a dart can be close to its intended target even if the player throwing the dart does not use good form. It might be that way with the newly released Florida Southern College poll, which shows, like many others, Trump leading and Rubio in second place in the Republican Party Presidential Preference Primary (PPP). But, the poll itself and the…

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Salt Shaker Test applied to latest Florida GOP PPP poll

in 2017/Top Headlines by

It was trumpeted (pun intended) as an “Exclusive Poll” for Bay News 9, and it showed Trump so far in the lead we just had to scratch our heads. Anytime you have an outlier poll with unusual findings it is vital that you turn a skeptical eye to the results – and so we did. SurveyUSA conducted the poll, and they used what our lawyers will advise us to call, “an interesting methodology.” Although the Bay News 9 release says…

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