No, that Bay News 9 thing you saw last night doesn’t mean Charlie Crist is going to win easily

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Recent polls have the battle between governor Rick Scott and former governor Charlie Crist dead even. But anyone watching Bay News 9 last night might not know that.

The 24/7 news channel broadcast results from an October 23 St. Pete Polls survey of Pinellas County only voters favoring Crist over Scott by more than 10 points. While that sentiment in Pinellas may not have changed since the local poll was conducted among likely voters here around the ‘burg, it’s not representative of the state as a whole.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows Crist up 42 to 41 percent against Scott. A GOP leaning poll by Optimus has Scott up by two points. Both of those polls stats are within the margin of error. So yeah, this thing is locked in a too-close-to-call dead heat.

Of course it’s not the only item on today’s ballot. Here are Matt Florell’s, the local pollster man himself, predictions for the election.

– Scott/Crist will end up so close that there will be a recount

– Amendment 1 will pass (environment spending)

– Amendment 2 will fail, but it will get over 50% (medical marijuana)

– Amendment 3 will fail (appointment of justices)

– GOP will miss veto-proof majority in State House by 1 seat

– Dwight Dudley will win in HD-68 by at least 5%

– Chris Latvala will win in HD-67, but it will be within single digits

– Pat Gerard will win over Ed Hooper by a very small margin in County Commission

– Greenlight Pinellas will lose by around 10%

– Pinellas-only elections will all be called by 9pm

– South Florida will count its votes into Wednesday.

Janelle Irwin has been a professional journalist covering local news and politics in the Tampa Bay area since 2003. She also hosts a weekly political talk show on WMNF Community radio. Janelle formerly served as the sole staff reporter for WMNF News and previously covered news for and various local neighborhood newsletters. Her work has been featured in the New York Daily News, Free Speech Radio News and Florida Public Radio and she's been interviewed by radio stations across the nation for her coverage of the 2012 Republican National Convention. Janelle is a diehard news junkie who isn't afraid to take on big names in local politics including Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, the dirty business of trash and recycling in St. Pete and the ongoing Pier debacle. Her work as a reporter and radio host has earned her two WMNF awards including News Volunteer of the Year and Public Affairs Volunteer of the Year. Janelle is also the devoted mother to three brilliant and beautiful daughters who are a constant source of inspiration and occasional blogging fodder. To contact, email