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Charlie Crist’s chances of winning GOP primary now trading for $5 a share on Intrade — down from $59

in Statewide by

I noticed that David Hunt of the Florida Times Union was looking to get down on some betting action about whether Charlie Crist would run as an Independent or not.  Hunt couldn’t find any odds comin’ out of Vegas although I would probably put it as a 3-to-5 likelihood that Crist will run as an Independent/No Party Affiliation, meaning you’d only get paid sixty cents for every dollar you bet (if Crist was a horse you’d bet that he was running as an Independent and “key” it over a bunch of other bets and that’s how you win a quinella) .

In the meantime, take a look at this graph:

Price for Florida - Republican Senate Primary at

That is not value of Lehman Brothers post-September 15, 2008, that is track on Intrade contracts valuing the likelihood of Charlie Crist winning the GOP nomination for the 2010 Florida Senate Race.

At their peak, “shares” of Charlie Crist’s prospects were trading at $59.  Today’s those same shares closed at just under $5.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.

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