Dem-leaning poll of Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 45%

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A Tuesday through Friday poll for the Democratic group Americans for Change by the Mellman Group shows Obama leading Romney in Florida, 47 percent to 45 percent. From their memo:

The president has built a strong reserve of early votes; among those who have already cast their ballots,Obama leads Romney 51% to 41%, with 8% declining to reveal their vote. The number of early voters has risen dramatically since our last poll, released on October 28th, and now accounts for nearly half of the electorate, 48%, up from 29% last week. This cache of early votes puts Obama in a strong position to win Florida on Election Day.

President Obama has shown significant improvement among registered independents, increasing his lead among Floridians not registered with a political party from 8 points on October 28 to a 14-point lead (53% to 39%) in our most recent survey. In addition to strong turnout from the Democratic base, the president will rely on these unaffiliated voters breaking in his favor in order to win Florida on Tuesday.

Latino voters, a key voting bloc that may determine our president for the next four years, currently break toward President Obama over Governor Romney by 22 points – 58% to 36%. Voters between the ages of 18-39 also maintain strong support for the president, choosing Obama over Romney by a 26-point margin, 58% to 32%. These young voters, along with women (who currently prefer Obama 51% to 42%), African Americans (91% to
4%) and residents of Miami-Palm Beach (57%-36%) will be essential targets for an effective Democratic GOTV operation on Election Day.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.