The president has built a strong reserve of early votes; among those who have already cast their ballots,Obama leads Romney 51% to 41%, with 8% declining to reveal their vote. The number of early voters has risen dramatically since our last poll, released on October 28th, and now accounts for nearly half of the electorate, 48%, up from 29% last week. This cache of early votes puts Obama in a strong position to win Florida on Election Day.
President Obama has shown significant improvement among registered independents, increasing his lead among Floridians not registered with a political party from 8 points on October 28 to a 14-point lead (53% to 39%) in our most recent survey. In addition to strong turnout from the Democratic base, the president will rely on these unaffiliated voters breaking in his favor in order to win Florida on Tuesday.
Latino voters, a key voting bloc that may determine our president for the next four years, currently break toward President Obama over Governor Romney by 22 points – 58% to 36%. Voters between the ages of 18-39 also maintain strong support for the president, choosing Obama over Romney by a 26-point margin, 58% to 32%. These young voters, along with women (who currently prefer Obama 51% to 42%), African Americans (91% to
4%) and residents of Miami-Palm Beach (57%-36%) will be essential targets for an effective Democratic GOTV operation on Election Day.