Florida is no longer a toss-up.
The Cook Political Report announced last week that 12 states shifted in the Democrats’ favor in the upcoming U.S. Senate races. The newsletter changed 13 ratings on its Electoral Vote Scorecard, including Florida. The shift came just days after Trump essentially clinched the Republican nomination.
“This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year,” said The Cook Report in its May 5 newsletter. “Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump‘s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate — women, millennials, independents and Latinos — make him the initial November underdog.”
The nonpartisan newsletter shifted Florida from the “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” Four other states — Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — were also moved from a toss-up state to leaning Democrat.
The assessment is based on publicly available polling, demographic changes and “private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties.
“Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton,” said The Cook Report.
Indiana, Missouri and the Nebraska second district, which were all considered “solid Republican” areas, shifted to the left. Indiana and Missouri are now “lean Republican” states, while the Nebraska second is a toss-up. North Carolina was believed to “lean Republican,” but has been shifted to a toss-up state.
Georgia and Arizona, which were both labeled as “likely Republican,” has moved into the “lean Republican” column; while New Mexico, which was labeled “likely Democrat,” has shifted to “solid Democrat.”
The Maine second district, once considered “solid Democrat,” shifted right slightly. The district is now listed as “likely Democrat.”