Go figure on this one: early voting dampens voter turnout.ย This finding, born from a Pew Research study that used multivariate regression to analyze turnout data from 2004 and 2008, suggests that the nation’s most popular voting reform achieves the opposite of its intent.
What’s more, early voting states include large, electorally important ones such as Florida, Ohio, Texas and New Jersey.
When implemented on its own without other voting reforms, early voting appears to rob Election Day of its “stimulating effects” by dissipating the energy of Election Day over a longer period of time.ย
To the authors, early voting reduces social pressure to vote, and makes it more difficult on campaigns to get people to the polls over time rather than in one heated day. ย
The study also examined media effects and found that states with early voting had lower volumes of campaign ads and less steep ramp ups of ads before Election Day. (Now that, who can say is a bad thing?)
Through this, the study suggests that predicted turnout is lessened by three to four percentage points in states with early voting.
In contrast, states that permit voters to register and vote on Election Day have a higher predicted turnout, also by about three to four percentage points.ย Just four states have this policy without also having early voting or other such reforms.ย And arguably, this policy could have unintended consequences apart from effects on turnout.
Previous studies have suggested that early voting either produces a positive but short-lived effect just after implementation, or has no effect at all.
Karen Cyphers, PhD, is a public policy researcher, political consultant, and mother to three daughters. She can be reached at [email protected].
