My final predictions in today’s battleground legislative primaries

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Yesterday, we wrote about how twelve of Florida’s top political consultants were competing against Contribution Link’s forecasting model to determine a) if they could beat the machine and b) who was smartest among them.

I won’t pretend to be as smart as the likes of Pat Bainter or David Johnson or Steve Vancore, but I do enjoy making predictions, so here are my final predictions in today’s battleground primaries.

In House District 5, there is no doubt Brad Drake will prevail over Jan Hooks. After Hooks posted her first head-turning finance report, Drake got very serious about returning to the Florida House and return he shall.

Once Jay Trumbull broke away from a crowded field to replace term-limited Jimmy Patronis, he’s never looked. Trumbull with at least a third of the vote.

On one side of House District 15 are good folks Marc Reichelderfer and Sarah Bascom and on the other side is good guy Brett Doster. If I lived in this district, I would have voted for Paul Renner, but my polling tells me Jay Fant is going to win.

Two credible candidates — Bob Cortes and Scott Sturgill — are running for the opportunity to challenge Karen Castor Dentel in House District 30. This race is six of one, half-dozen of another, but I’ll put my money on Sturgill to narrowly win.

The winner of the open primary in House District 31 can will probably attract about a quarter of the vote, this race is that evenly matched. The Tallahassee crowd says Randy Glisson will win this race, but I smell an upset here for Jennifer Sullivan.

A lot of money has flowed into the House District 40 primary, which would make it appear that this race is closer than what my polling tells me. I’ve polled three times in this race and had access to two other independent polls and ALL of them had John Shannon winning, some by a mile. Put me down for Shannon by at least a touchdown.

Mike Miller over Mo Pearson in HD 47.

In an earlier post, I predicted that Sean Shaw will prevail over Ed Narain in the Democratic primary for House District 61.

In HD 68, look for Joshua Black to knock off heavy favorite Bill Young — just kidding — I want to see if you all are still reading.

In HD 74, Richard DeNapoli was leading among those who already cast their ballots, but Julio Gonzalez was polling better among those who planned to vote. I think the Florida Medical Association’s money worked in this race: Gonzalez by a nose.

In an earlier post, I said there would be no Eric Cantoring of any State Senate Republicans, so Thad Altman and Joe Negron are more than safe. Look for Geraldine Thompson to hold off Gary Siplin’s return bid in SD 12.

Am I missing any races?

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.