“Florida, Florida, Florida” isn’t as essential as it used to be to presidential politics.
At least that what’s Jim O’Sullivan of the National Journal writes. In fact, of the five paths the Obama campaign deems likeliest to victory – laid out in December with a memorable profanity from campaign manager Jim Messina – only one includes the Sunshine State.
That’s a recognition that Obama’s performance among aging voters is weak. According to the U.S. Census, Florida had the nation’s fifth-highest median age. And Romney’s already won there once this year; recall that it was his crucial and commanding win there that firewalled him against Newt Gingrich’s surge.
Writing off Florida would be, in many ways, liberating, since its pricey media markets and sui generis politics make it a resource-draining state. But the looming loss of a state the president carried four years ago by three points, after Florida had gone for George W. Bush twice straight, poses longer term, ominous concerns for Democrats.
