Put Florida in the leaning blue column.
According to a memo Kevin Cate sent to reporters Friday, Donald Trump’s mini-surge in the Sunshine State is over, and Clinton is “once again gaining raw votes.”
“Florida should lean blue for Clinton. Trump’s mini(hand) surge here is over, based on RealClearPolitics.com’s fairly conservative averaging. Clinton is once again gaining raw votes,” he wrote. “Based on a snapshot, day-by-day margin analysis, which is the only way to operate in a state with 50 days to cast/count votes, I think Clinton is up 83,697 votes. And gaining.”
According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton has an average lead of 1 percentage point in the Sunshine State. In a four-way race, RealClearPolitics shows Clinton’s holds a 1.2 percentage point lead over her competitors.
“To get to a win number, Trump needs a massive 3.34 percent shift in margin here. Clinton is up in the day-by-day, proportional to votes cast, by 2.14 percent, and as of today, Trump is down 1.2 percent on RCP,” wrote Cate.
“Again, this model is not super complicated, and it’s not skewed. We are taking the RCP averages, which also average out the expected turnout models, and matching it day-by-day with actual raw votes cast,” he wrote. “There are probably about 4 million votes to go right now. Florida should be lean blue for Clinton.”