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Fox News: Jeb Bush leads, Donald Trump enters top tier in post announcement polling

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With businessman Donald Trump entering the race for the GOP presidential nomination, a new Fox News poll found a shift in the leader board, with both Trump and Jeb Bush receiving bumps after their formal announcements.

On the list of Republican contenders, Bush leads with his best showing yet, getting 15 percent support among primary voters. That’s a jump from 12 percent last month. Bush launched his campaign June 15.

Since announcing on June 16 – one day after Bush — Trump’s support has more than doubled, now at 11 percent and putting him in the top-tier. The only other candidate with double-digit backing, the survey shows, is neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 10 percent.

As for the Democrats, the survey has former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remaining the clear front-runner.

But it is not all good news for Trump; only 29 percent of Republican primary voters see him as a serious candidate. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (64 percent) think his campaign is a distraction.

And nearly eight in 10 of all voters (77 percent) believe Trump is a “side show.”

Although he has not officially entered the race, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker receives nine percent support, a number down from 12 percent last month. It’s the only time since January that Walker has dipped into the single digits.

Of the others in the growing GOP field, it’s Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (9 percent), Marco Rubio (8 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (6 percent) holding steady among GOP primary voters.

Down the list are Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with 4 percent, and former Hewitt Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum with 3 percent each.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal gets 2 percent; he announced his bid on Wednesday.

On the Democratic side, polling found Clinton firmly in command with 61 percent of Democratic voters; Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is second, receiving 15 percent.  Another 11 percent support Vice President Joe Biden; New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo gets three percent – neither one has declared.

According to Fox News, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton share one thing in common – a lack of trust by voters.

Trump is well underwater on the subject of honesty, by a negative 34 points: 64 percent say he is untrustworthy compared to 30 percent who believe he is. Clinton’s score is only at a negative seven: 45 percent to 52 percent.

Bush’s honesty score is also negative, by just two points: 45 percent honest compared to 47 percent not.  In April, the needle was at 46 percent honest and 42 percent dishonest. Rubio is at a positive four-point honesty rating, although nearly one-third of voters did not know enough to rate him. Yet, a majority of Republicans (57 percent) feel the Florida senator is honest.

In head-to-head match-ups, Clinton leads every GOP candidate polled — except Bush.  The two tied with 43 percent each, after Bush getting a one-point advantage in May and tying with Clinton in March.

Clinton also leads Rubio by a single point, Paul by four points, and Carson by five points. The former First Lady beats Cruz, Fiorina and Walker by six points apiece. All of these hypothetical match-ups are within the poll’s margin of error.

Despite Trump’s addition to the top-tier of the GOP field, Clinton performs her best against him — by 17 points.

Clinton may have the advantage, but Republicans still like their 2016 chances if she’s the Democratic nominee:  22 percent say there is an “excellent” chance, while 58 percent say the GOP has a “good” chance.

Many Democrats polled have doubts about Clinton, as well: 46 percent say the GOP has a chance of beating her; 49 percent do not.

With independents polled, they say Republicans have a good chance of victory in 2016 against Clinton, 67 percent to 28 percent.

Fox News surveyed 1,005 registered voters nationwide, randomly choosing respondents through both landline and cell phone interviews from June 21-23. The margin of error for the full poll is +/- three percentage points. Within subgroups of Democratic and Republican primary voters, the margin of error was slightly higher (+/-5 percent).

Phil Ammann is a St. Petersburg-based journalist and blogger. With more than three decades of writing, editing and management experience, Phil produced material for both print and online, in addition to founding HRNewsDaily.com. His broad range includes covering news, local government and culture reviews for Patch.com, technical articles and profiles for BetterRVing Magazine and advice columns for a metaphysical website, among others. Phil has served as a contributor and production manager for SaintPetersBlog since 2013. He lives in St. Pete with his wife, visual artist Margaret Juul and can be reached at phil@floridapolitics.com and on Twitter @PhilAmmann.

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