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Interesting kernels of data from the recent polls surveying the Florida Senate race

in Peter/Statewide by

One of the dominant themes that can be extracted from the recent polling is that those who know Charlie Crist best don’t like him or won’t vote for him. Marco Rubio leads Crist 68-18 among Republican primary voters who have an opinion of both candidates. As the memo attached to the FMA poll states:

Among those GOP voters who have an opinion (positive or negative) of BOTH Crist and Rubio, Crist trails Rubio by a 50-point margin. While these results are somewhat exaggerated, it spells big trouble for Crist because Crist is known to 100% of GOP voters whereas Rubio is known to about 60%. Based on this data, if Rubio’s image growth is left unchecked, it is likely that Crist will fall even further behind in the ballot.

Also, take a look at the Quinnipiac Poll: when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor?” respondents in Tampa Bay and the I-4 Corridor, Charlie’s hometown and so-called base, gave him the worst markings of five geographic areas. In the Panhandle, Crist’s job approval/disapproval rating is 55%/31%, in the Bay Area it’s 51%/39%, and along the I-4 corridor, it’s 45%/44%.

Another developing theme is that Kendrick Meek is going to have a hard time pushing Maurice Ferre out of the race if Meek continues to perform no better against Crist and Rubio than Ferre does. The Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA) poll shows Meek only two points ahead of Ferre versus Crist (29, 27) and only three points of Ferre versus Rubio.

If he wanted to, Charlie Crist could abandon his Senate campaign, run for re-election as governor and would win. Crist (39%) beats Bill McCollum (31%) and Paula Dockery (4%) narrowly and swamps Alex Sink (48%-31%).

I’ll keep pouring through the data to see what other interesting kernels of data I can find…

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.

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