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Quinnipiac poll

Hillary Clinton 48%, Donald Trump 44% in new poll

in Statewide by

Hillary Clinton has a slight edge over Donald Trump in the Sunshine State, thanks in part to independent voters. A new Quinnipiac University poll found Clinton leads Trump, 48 percent to 44 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson received 4 percent support, while Jill Stein pulled support from 1 percent of respondents. “Hillary Clinton is holding a thin lead in Florida because she is winning the battle for independent voters and holding her lead among women, non-white voters, and her Democratic base,”…

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Steve Schale: I have ‘real issues’ with Q polling in Florida

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Just a couple of observations on this Quinnipiac University poll today. I continue to have real issues with the way that Q does its polling, particularly in Florida. But here’s easier argument why you should take ALL of their numbers in Florida with a grain of salt: they were wildly inaccurate throughout the 2012 cycle, and based on their first two polls: Hillary Clinton +8, and Donald Trump +3, one can reasonably assume they haven’t fixed whatever issues they had…

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Joe Henderson: Latest Q-poll only proves volatility is norm in 2016

in 2017/Top Headlines by

If the latest Quinnipiac poll is to be believed, Donald Trump has jumped in front of Hillary Clinton in Florida. The Q now has Trump ahead 42-39 over Clinton, and that’s just head to head. Throw in Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Jill Stein of the Green Party and the Donald goes up by five points. Head to head is within the 3.1 percent plus-minus margin of error. And the Q poll, while always widely cited, has its share of…

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Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio 46 percent to 22 percent in Florida

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Donald Trump continues to hold a double-digit lead over Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State. According to a Quinnipiac poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters, Trump leads the GOP field with 46 percent, followed by Rubio at 22 percent. Ted Cruz is at 14 percent, followed by John Kasich at 10 percent. The winner-take-all Republican primary is Tuesday. The survey found that 86 percent of likely Republican voters in Florida said their mind was made up. That number jumps…

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Why the Quinnipiac poll spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Bernie Sanders

in Peter/Top Headlines by

As we noted in both salt shaker tests on the two recent Florida polls (Quinnipiac and AIF polls), the method used by Quinnipiac likely favors an outsider insurgent. Why is that? Quinnipiac asked randomly dialed Floridians to indicate first whether or not they were a registered voter, then which party they belonged to and then – this is the crux – whether or not they intended to vote. We know, with unquestioned certainty, that respondents exaggerate their propensity to vote.…

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Salt Shaker Test: Evaluation Donald Trump’s large lead in latest Q-PAC poll

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Quinnipiac’s latest poll is a good one, but with a slight methodology problem that could favor Donald Trump. What did the poll find? It found Trump nearly lapping what is left of the field and is 16-points ahead of the second closest candidate, Marco Rubio. If accurate (and we know the race will change between now and March 15); this could spell serious trouble for anyone hoping to challenge the front-runner. Let’s break out the salt shaker and evaluate their…

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Return of the Saltshaker series examining the veracity of the latest polling

in 2017/Top Headlines by

It’s officially Summer, the legislative session has (finally) ended and there are at least a dozen serious candidates declared for president – and that’s just the Republican side of the ledger. Do you know what that means? POLLING SEASON HAS BEGUN! I know it’s a little crazy but we are only (yes, “only”) about 200 days from the Iowa Caucuses. And, in case you haven’t been following political news, someone is releasing a new poll almost weekly. Do you know what…

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