Over the next few days, more surveys will weigh-in on the size of Romney’s post-debate bounce. But it’s important to keep an eye on whether the polls are measuring the peak of Romney’s bounce, which looks like it was around 4 points before the polls with Sunday interviews pointed toward a smaller one, or whether they’re measuring the weekend and later, when there are signs that Romney’s bounce began to fade. Resolving the size of Romney’s bounce and whether it lasted are two important, but separate questions. We’ll need to be careful to track both.
For that reason, Mark Blumenthal‘s point about the Pew poll is potentially quite important: just 155 interviews were conducted on Sunday. As observed yesterday, Sunday appeared to be a strong day for the president in the tracking polls, Rasmussen’s two state surveys, and PPP’s poll of Virginia. Before Sunday’s interviews were incorporated into the tracking polls and Rasmussen showed Obama performing well in Colorado and Iowa, the balance of evidence pointed toward about a 3 or 4-point shift in Romney’s direction, which would have produced a tied race.