Karen Castor Dentel gains in HD 30 race, but still 11 points behind Bob Cortes

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In two weeks, Democratic state Rep. Karen Castor Dentel gained some voters, but a new poll finds the House District 30 incumbent still 11 points behind her GOP opponent, Longwood City Commissioner Bob Cortes.

new survey of likely voters from StPetePolls taken Oct. 28 has Cortes leading 54 to 43 percent, with more than 2 percent undecided.

Two weeks ago, a similar Oct. 14 poll found Cortes leading 56 to 38 percent, with over six percent undecided. District 30 covers sections of Seminole and Orange counties.

Both candidates continue strong support amongst base voters — each with 86 percent. However, the movement comes as Cortes drops some Democratic backers (13 percent, down from 18 percent) compared to Dentel numbers with Republicans (holding steady at 12 percent).

Independent voters also lean slightly to the Democrat: 51 percent for Dentel and 43 percent for Cortes.

Matt Florell of StPetePolls weighted both the Oct. 28 and Oct. 14 polls with a slight Republican edge, using the same turnout model from 2010, which could change if Democrats are successful in their renewed push for increased turnout.

With a week left in Florida governor’s race, likely voters in District 30 are shifting slightly away from Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who still leads by 11 points, 49 to 38 percent, over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist. Libertarian Adrian Wyllie receives just over 9 percent, while four percent remain undecided

Two weeks ago, the GOP incumbent had a commanding 20-point lead, 53 to 32 percent.

The survey, commissioned by SaintPetersBlog, contacted 306 likely voters on October 28 using a random automated phone call system from the registered voters within District 30. Only those voters that cast ballots in the 2010 and 2012 general elections were included in the results.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent and a 95 percent confidence level.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.