Florida is too close to call in the 2012 presidential race, withMitt Romney holding a within-the-margin-of-error lead over Barack Obama in a new Quinnipiac University poll after trailing Obama by 7 points in late March.
Romney holds a 44-to-43 percent edge over Obama in the new poll.
I want inside the crosstabs of the poll and found these key takeaways.
1. If there is a ‘War on Women’ being conducted by Republicans, the battle has not made its way to Florida, where the oft-rumored gender gap does not appear to exist. Obama leads 44-to-42 percent with women, while Romney is up 46-to-42 percent with men. The so-called gender gap, at least in Florida, is paper thin.
2. Obama is losing bad among Florida’s middle class. He trails Romney 37-to-51 among those making $50,000 to $100,000. In fact, the only economic demographic the President is leading is with those making under $30,000.
3. Rick Wilson noticed this and I believe this may be the key takeaway: Voter intensity is strongest within the GOP. When asked if they were more enthusiastic or less enthusiastic than normal about voting in the presidential election, Republicans were 48-to-20 percent more enthusiastic, while Democrats were upside down at 26-to35 percent. As Wilson tweeted, “That’s the novelty of Obama disappearing.”
4. Fifty percent of the state still believes President Obama does not deserve re-election. Why? Because it appears Florida voters believe the country is on the wrong track. Overall 71% said they were somewhat or very dissatisfied “with the way things are going in the nation today.”
These poll numbers fit into my developing theory that come mid-to-late October, the Obama Campaign will decide that Florida is a time and money sump and that they do not really need the state to win the election. At that point, it will re-allocate its final resources to Ohio and other battleground states, where Obama will prevail on his way to a second term.
He’s just going to have to win without Florida.