Key takeaways from today’s Qunnipiac poll of Florida showing Romney 44%, Obama 43%

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Florida is too close to call in the 2012 presidential race, withMitt Romney holding a within-the-margin-of-error lead over Barack Obama in a new Quinnipiac University poll after trailing Obama by 7 points in late March.

Romney holds a 44-to-43 percent edge over Obama in the new poll.

I want inside the crosstabs of the poll and found these key takeaways.

1. If there is a ‘War on Women’ being conducted by Republicans, the battle has not made its way to Florida, where the oft-rumored gender gap does not appear to exist. Obama leads 44-to-42 percent with women, while Romney is up 46-to-42 percent with men. The so-called gender gap, at least in Florida, is paper thin.

2. Obama is losing bad among Florida’s middle class. He trails Romney 37-to-51 among those making $50,000 to $100,000. In fact, the only economic demographic the President is leading is with those making under $30,000.

3. Rick Wilson noticed this and I believe this may be the key takeaway: Voter intensity is strongest within the GOP. When asked if they were more enthusiastic or less enthusiastic than normal about voting in the presidential election, Republicans were 48-to-20 percent more enthusiastic, while Democrats were upside down at 26-to35 percent. As Wilson tweeted, “That’s the novelty of Obama disappearing.”

4. Fifty percent of the state still believes President Obama does not deserve re-election. Why? Because it appears Florida voters believe the country is on the wrong track. Overall 71% said they were somewhat or very dissatisfied “with the way things are going in the nation today.”

These poll numbers fit into my developing theory that come mid-to-late October, the Obama Campaign will decide that Florida is a time and money sump and that they do not really need the state to win the election. At that point, it will re-allocate its final resources to Ohio and other battleground states, where Obama will prevail on his way to a second term.

He’s just going to have to win without Florida.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.