Mike Miller slips 5 points, leads Rep. Linda Stewart by 10 in new HD 47 poll

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House District 47 voters have closed the gap slightly between incumbent Democratic state Rep. Linda Stewart and Mike Miller, her Republican opponent, according to the latest polling from StPetePolls.

The survey, taken Oct. 28, still shows Miller with a 10-point advantage, 53 to 43 percent, with just over three percent undecided.

Two weeks earlier, in a similar poll Oct. 14, Miller’s lead over Stewart was 15 points, 56 to 41 percent.

District 47 covers much of Orange County, East Orlando, Winter Park and Belle Isle.

Stewart enjoys strong support from her base (80 percent) and splits the independent vote (49 percent). Miller still takes a chunk of Democrats (16 percent, down from 18 two weeks ago) and continues his still-solid Republican base (84 percent, down three points from Oct. 14).

Matt Florell of StPetePolls said he weighed both the Oct. 28 and Oct. 14 polls with a slight Republican edge, using the same turnout model from 2010. The final numbers could change, especially if Democrats are successful in their renewed push for increased participation.

“This represents a best-case scenario for Republicans,” Florell said in an email. “But I don’t think turnout is really going to be that slanted in the end.”

Although voters in HD 47 prefer incumbent Gov. Rick Scott, his margin of support dropped two points against Democratic nominee Charlie Crist since the last poll. Scott still leads Crist by 10 points, 50 to 40 percent, with libertarian Adrian Wyllie changing the most, a five-point drop to 9 percent, from almost 14 points Oct. 14. Just over one percent are undecided.

Commissioned by SaintPetersBlog, pollsters randomly chose respondents within the HD 47 registered voter population listed as of Sept. 4. Only voters saying they voted in the 2010 and 2012 general elections and were planning to cast a ballot were included in the results.

The survey sample size was 331, and the poll has a +/- 5.4 percent margin of error at 95 percent confidence level.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.