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New poll shows David Jolly up by 1 point over Patrick Murphy in 2016 Senate race, 44-43 percent

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A new poll released on the Florida Senate race shows Pinellas County GOP Congressman David Jolly with a narrow one-point lead over South Florida Democratic Representative Patrick Murphy, 44-43 percent.

The survey was conducted by the polling firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a polling firm with that includes Stan Greenberg, a longtime pollster for Bill Clinton. It was conducted for Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund and Democracy Corps.

The Florida race is one of four senate contests that the polling firm  conducted, along with races in Colorado, Ohio and Wisconsin. All four states are considered to be extremely close Senate races in 2016, with the Democrats needing a total of 5 to win back the Senate.

If the pollsters referred to other candidates in their poll of Florida senate candidates, it’s not listed in the poll, which was released on Tuesday. There is no mention of Democrat Alan Grayson in the survey, not that of the other Republican senate hopefuls: Congressman Ron DeSantis, Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera or former CIA military contractor Todd Wilcox.

A Public Policy Polling survey of the Florida Senate race in September showed Grayson leading Murphy by six points, 33-27%, and Jolly leading DeSantis 18%-15%, with Lopez-Cantera right behind at 14%.

The poll also shows Hillary Clinton with a narrow, two-point lead over Donald Trump in a perspective head-to-head presidential match-up in Florida next November. Clinton leads 46-44 percent over the New York City real estate magnate.

Sixty-five percent of Floridians in the survey say that the country is on the wrong track, twenty-nine percent say the country is on the right track.

The survey was taken between October 24-28. Respondents were divided equally among states (n=400) of Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. Margin of error for each state sample= +/-4.9 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups.

Mitch Perry has been a reporter with Extensive Enterprises since November of 2014. Previously, he served as five years as the political editor of the alternative newsweekly Creative Loafing. He also was the assistant news director with WMNF 88.5 FM in Tampa from 2000-2009, and currently hosts MidPoint, a weekly talk show, on WMNF on Thursday afternoons. He began his reporting career at KPFA radio in Berkeley. He's a San Francisco native who has now lived in Tampa for 15 years and can be reached at mitch.perry@floridapolitics.com.

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