Kartik Krishnaiyer of the Political Hurricane examines whether there is real momentum for Connie Mack in his bid to unseat Bill Nelson or is Mack’s improved poll numbers just “classic tightening”:
“The constant barrage of Super PAC funded ads against Nelson may have taken its toll especially in Republican base areas of northern Florida. Nelson’s poll numbers have been stagnant thanks to barrage of negative ads, while undecided voters have cut towards the Republican challenger. Mack’s continued negative campaign has worked to a large extent, with fewer ticket splitters showing up in current polling than previously. However, with Governor Romney strongly favored to win Florida, Mack needs to eliminate the remaining ticket splitters. This will be difficult in a final week, where the most undecideds have already cut one way or another and because the well funded negative campaign against Nelson has in all likelihood hit a point of diminishing returns.
Mack’s well orchestrated campaign of fear and demagoguery has had some success with a disengaged electorate, but has failed to raise Nelson’s negatives among voters previously committed in the race. In many Florida statewide races of the past, we have seen tightening one to two weeks before the election which then turn into blowouts election night. This pattern held true with the 1990 and 1998 Governor’s race as well as the 1986 and 2006 US Senate races.”