Jeffrey Saut sees the US economy following the same trajectory that it has followed the past two years, with a weak summer followed by a strong finish, and the signs are in housing data.
“Recent reports indicate new home sales continue to accelerate. The seasonally adjusted annualized pace of new home sales (contract signings) rose 7.6% month-over-month to 369,000 units. Drilling down to the unadjusted data, May sales jumped 25% y/y and increased 6% sequentially, indicating that the positive momentum in housing has continued to build in recent weeks… Given such metrics, I expect the same outcome that occurred for the past two summers. That being, recession fears, which caused those previous mid-year declines in equity prices, should give way to no recession with an attendant rise in equity prices.”
“Nevertheless, bearishness is in the ‘air’ with participants in ‘panic mode’ just like they were the past two summers. CALM DOWN, we have had a panic declines in each of the last two years and survived them.”
Via The Wonk Wire.