In HD 29, Scott Plakon’s double-digit lead over Mike Clelland holds firm

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Former state Rep. Scott Plakon is enjoying a 24-point advantage over first-term incumbent Rep. Mike Clelland in a new StPetePolls survey.

Plakon, a Longwood Republican, leads Lake Mary Democrat Clelland by a 59 to 35 percent margin in an Oct. 28 poll for the House District 29 race. Just over 6 percent of respondents were undecided.

An earlier survey, taken Oct. 14, had the gap at 23 points.

In addition to overwhelming support of Republican base, and 14 percent of Democrats, Plakon wins with independents, taking 55 percent, versus 38 percent for Clelland.

HD 29 covers the Republican-leaning region of Seminole County and the cities of Lake Mary, Longwood and parts of Sanford.

Matt Florell of StPetePolls weighted both the Oct. 28 and Oct. 14 polls with a slight Republican edge, using the same 2010 turnout model.

“This represents a best-case scenario for Republicans,” Florell says in an email. “But I don’t think turnout is really going to be that slanted in the end.”

“In races like HD-29,” he adds, “I don’t see any turnout model that could result in Clelland winning.”

Incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott also continues his double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in the district covering the Orlando suburbs. HD 29 voters are giving Scott an advantage over Crist by 24 points, 55 to 31 percent, with libertarian Adrian Wyllie hovering just over 9 percent, and under 5 percent saying they are undecided.

In the Oct. 14 poll, Scott led Crist by 19 points, 53 to 34 percent, with libertarian Adrian Wyllie breaking 10 percent, and just under 4 percent undecided.

The survey, commissioned by SaintPetersBlog, contacted 324 likely voters on October 28 using a random automated phone call system from the registered voters within District 29. Only those voters that cast ballots in the 2010 and 2012 general elections were included in the results.

The poll has a +/- 5.4 percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.