First, the threat: as the Pentagon shifts focus from unconventional foes such as the Taliban that lack air forces and defenses, to state-based adversaries with integrated air defenses like Syria, Iran, and North Korea, it will do so with older, non-stealthy fighters that could be shot down by surface-to-air missiles in battles over airspace.
According to an analysis by Loren Thompson of Forbes, it is increasingly possible that the US and its allies could impose a no-fly zone over Syria as they did during conflicts in Libya and Iraq. This highlights the “importance of having survivable fifth-generation fighters in friendly air forces” — i.e. the F-35.
Fighters are the main weapons used to establish command of the skies. But, according to Thompson, it has been a while since the US faced enemies in the air, and during this interim the technology available to defenders has advanced rapidly.
Concerns were raised last with reports that Syria will soon receive the S-300, an advanced surface-to-air missile and radar system from Russia. The S-300 has been refined over the years to counter Western tactics such as electronic jamming. It is highly mobile, sets up in just minutes, and can track up to 100 targets from 100 miles away, simultaneously targeting a dozen. The S-300 and others like it would likely require manned aircraft to be taken down.
The best answer: fifth-generation fighters that have technologies and digital flight controls making them survivable in world of such threats. These fighters such as the F-35 are defined by “advanced stealth features that make the aircraft very hard to detect; high maneuverability enabled by new propulsion technology and materials; fusion of on-board sensor collections; and high-capacity datalinks facilitating comprehensive situational awareness.”
To Thompson, these features mean that when flying in hostile airspace, friendly pilots can see the enemy but not vice versa, and deliver the potential to suppress enemy air defenses within days. Unfortunately, there is no way to make an older fighter “as survivable as a fifth-gen aircraft.”
So, what will come first, Syria or North Korea’s acquisition of the S-300 or the ramp up of the F-35 program that can cope with tomorrow’s threats? It looks like Syria will have the S-300 system from Russia early next year, though it could also appear in other unfriendly countries soon if the technologies are copied. The F-35 may not be operational until 2015 or later.
According to Thompson’s analysis, the F-35 is worth the wait; but also that its value — and the timeframe — could be expedited by focusing all fighter investment on a single production line.
“The F-35 will cost more for the next few years until production ramps up and contractors move down the learning curve,” he writes. “But once you factor in survivability and combat effectiveness, it isn’t hard to see why three U.S. services and a dozen overseas allies are determined to stick with the F-35 as their future fighter.”
