Stat of the Day: 51% of those who voted early say they voted for Romney

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Mitt Romney continues to lead the Florida Republican presidential primary. Romney leads with 43%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 31%, Rick Santorum with 13%, and Ron Paul with 9%, according to the final ARG survey of Florida.

In a similar survey conducted January 27-28, 2012, Romney was at 43% and Gingrich was at 32%.

A total of 36% of Republican primary voters say that they have already voted by absentee ballot or in early voting. Of this group of voters, Romney leads with 51%, followed by Gingrich with 29%, Santorum with 12%, and Paul with 8%. Among the 64% of the remaining likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads with 39%, followed by Gingrich with 32%, Santorum with 14%, and Paul with 10%.

Based on the votes already cast through absentee ballots and early voting and assuming Romney holds his vote, Gingrich would need to receive 51% of the votes cast on election day to tie Romney at 43%. That represents all of the undecided vote plus Ron Paul’s expected vote on election day or 71% of Santorum’s expected vote on election day.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.