Steve Schale’s Thursday update brings more encouragement to Democrats, who won both early and absentee voting on Wednesday.
As of today, the overall GOP lead has dropped to 137K ballots, or roughly 5.9 percent. On this day of the previous gubernatorial race in 2010, the GOP early vote margin was 15.7 percent or 262K votes.
Schale’s takeaway is that the Republican raw vote advantage is down 125K votes than at the same point in 2010 – roughly twice the number of votes that brought Gov. Rick Scott to the Governor’s Mansion.
To put it in perspective, Schale says that if Democrat Alex Sink enjoyed the same environment four years ago, she would have won by roughly the same margin that elected Scott.
Today, this race is entering Election Day with a much more balanced electorate.
Compared to Republicans, Democrats are turning out at the polls at a much higher proportion than at 2010, the last midterm year with the governor’s race.
Schale notes that Democrats are now 61 percent over their 2010 vote totals while GOP is at roughly 23 percent over comparable totals in 2010.
No Party Affiliated voter turnout is also encouraging, where nearly twice as many NPA voters cast ballots compared to this point in 2010.
Virtually every public poll shows Crist doing well with NPA voters, Schale says, making this trend very good news for Democrats.