A morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
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MCCAIN DOESN’T THINK IMMIGRATION WILL HURT RUBIO IN ’16 via the Arizona Republic:
John McCain doesn’t believe that immigration reform will derail Marco Rubio’s chances to win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
Although it is still early in the process, some conservative pundits and “tea party” activists already are writing off Rubio because of his role in crafting the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” bill that the Senate passed June 27 on a 68-32 vote.
“I think it’s just foolish,” McCain told The Arizona Republic on Friday. “I’m not endorsing anyone, but I can tell you Marco Rubio is an articulate spokesperson for what conservatives believe in, in principle. And if we pass immigration reform, which is certainly not clear, he would get enormous credit for it.”
OBAMA PLANS CAMPAIGN-STYLE SWING AHEAD OF DEBT CEILING FIGHT via the New York Times
With major battles looming in the fall over the federal budget and the debt ceiling, President Obama is trying to regain the initiative, embarking on a campaign-style tour of the Midwest this week to lay out his agenda for reinvigorating the nation’s economy.
Obama’s offensive will begin in Illinois “with what his aides are saying will be a major address on economic policy at Knox College. Officials declined to provide details of the president’s message, but said he would set his terms for what they expect will be another bruising battle with a Republican-controlled House over the nation’s fiscal policies.
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AMERICANS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN EVER ABOUT FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE via contributor Karen Cyphers
Americans give high marks to the health care they now receive but are more pessimistic than ever about the future of care, according to a Rasmussen poll released today. The telephone survey of likely US voters found that 61 percent think the health care system will get worse over the next two years, while only 24 percent believe it will get better. Pessimism has certainly increased over the past few months in that respect, and dramatically so over the past few years. On June 17 of this year, 57 percent felt health care would get worse in the coming years; while in February, 48 percent expected the same, and in December 2012, this ratio was at 47 percent.
This pessimism is certainly related to the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, but exceeds public disapproval of the law itself. A July 19 Rasmussen poll found that 44 percent of likely voters approved of the president’s handling of health care issues, while 43 percent rated the president poorly on health care. And a July 15 poll found that comparable numbers approve of Obamacare (45 percent), while 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the law. Only 26 percent of Americans opposed the delaying of the individual health care mandate.
AMERICANS PREFER VOLUNTEERISM TO POLITICS, AND HOW FLORIDIANS STACK UP via contributor Karen Cyphers
A new USA TODAY/Bipartisan Policy Center Poll found that Americans are turning to volunteerism and charities as the best way to make positive changes in society, rather than being active in politics. Those younger than 30 are especially turned off by politics and are significantly less likely than their parents to feel that political action is an important value in their lives. According to the poll, while the worlds of civic life and public life used to be the same, Americans are increasingly looking to community organizations and charities as the way to make a difference. Only about 20% of those surveyed reported trusting the federal government to do what is right most of the time, with 42% seeing the government as an advocate and 38% seeing it as an adversary for them and their families. On that matter, there is a strong partisan split, with Democrats seeing government as an advocate and Republicans seeing it as an adversary. So how does Florida stack up to other states relative to charitable activities and volunteerism?
Florida ranks fairly high in terms of charitable giving, coming it at #19 in terms of per capita donations and #4 in terms of overall donations. In 2008, Floridians donated more than $7.4 billion worth of charitable contributions, with the typical resident donating about 4.6% of discretionary income. In this study, the eight states whose residents gave the largest share to charity voted for McCain that year while the seven lowest-ranking states supported Obama — perhaps highlighting the assumption that Democrats feel it is government’s role to provide for people while Republicans may be more likely to take those matters into their own hands. Yet Florida doesn’t fare so well on the volunteerism front, ranking #45 out of 50 in terms of overall activity. About 22.9% of Floridians volunteered in 2011, providing 30.8 volunteer hours per resident. This accounted for 458.7 million hours of service with a value of $10 billion in service.
UPWARD MOBILITY IS ABOUT LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION
The New York Times reports on a new study which finds a significant correlation between income mobility and geography. Researchers from Harvard and the University of California at Berkeley examined millions of earnings records to gauge the potential impact of local and state tax policies on intergenerational economic mobility. The data indicated that larger tax credits for the poor had a relatively minor effect on mobility, while the greatest mobility existed in communities in which poor families were dispersed among mixed-income neighborhoods rather than concentrated in pockets of poverty. “Where you grow up matters,” said Harvard economist Nathaniel Hendren, one of the study’s authors. “There is tremendous variation across the U.S. in the extent to which kids can rise out of poverty.” Still, the study’s authors are careful to note that their findings indicate correlation, not causation, and that further research will be required.
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A SHRUNKEN BALLEGROUND FOR 2014 via POLITICO
With the House sliced and diced into districts that leave most incumbents insulated from any serious reelection challenge — and a host of prized Senate recruits from both parties deciding they’d rather just stay home — control of Congress could be decided next year by the fewest number of states and congressional districts in a decade or more.
The parties out of power are in a critical window over the next several months to expand the map or risk ceding seats that should be within reach. They’re confident they’ll pull it off: Check back in the new year and the landscape will look a lot different, they say.
EMAIL I DIDN’T OPEN: “Why Nick Ruiz Over John Mica”
LAWMAKERS FACE CRUNCH TIME BEFORE AUGUST RECESS via Billy House of National Journal
With their August vacation around the corner, the House and Senate enter this week still without a budget deal, far apart on spending bills, and with no plan to raise the debt ceiling by autumn. The Senate does expect to vote as early as Tuesday on an agreement that would retroactively address student-loan interest rates that doubled July 1. The Senate also is planning to proceed to floor action on the first of its 12 annual spending bills for fiscal 2014, dealing with transportation and housing and urban development. The House is planning this week to take up its Pentagon spending bill, and perhaps its own transportation bill.
NEARLY EVERY MEMBER OF CONGRESS HAS THEIR OWN LEADERSHIP PAC via National Journal
Once the province of actual and aspiring congressional leaders, who used them to dish out money to win friends and forge alliances, leadership PACs are now commonplace all the way to the back benches of Capitol Hill. It’s symptomatic of the constant money chase that consumes so much of modern lawmakers’ time and energy.
Of the new senators elected last November, only one, Maine’s Angus King, doesn’t have one yet. Overall, 94 of the 100 current senators have created such PACs… Roughly two-thirds of House members have them, as well.
PROMOTED: Evan Polisar, now Press Secretary/Legislative Assistant for Rep. Alcee Hastings.
VERN BUCHANAN ON A FUNDRAISING BINGE via Jeremy Wallace of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Buchanan has been on a fundraising binge over the first six months of this year, raising more than $800,000. That is the third highest total of any congressional candidate in Florida’s 27 House districts and the most of any Republican in the state, according to the latest campaign finance reports.
… Buchanan raised $394,370 from donors from April 1 to June 30, and spent $297,170 — including repaying $200,000 in personal loans he gave the campaign last year.
It all leaves Buchanan with $499,190 in his campaign account to fight whomever emerges to challenge him for re-election in 2014, new Federal Election Commission records show.
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DCF: A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME from the must-check-out new blog, Decision Media Works
We saw this article from the Miami-Herald about the Department of Children and Families new fraud prevention technology. The article says the new LexisNexis program “uses complex algorithms and ‘billions and billions of records across multiple decades’ to perform what it calls identity analytics.”
The Department would not identify the “secret sauce” of the program so we decided to demystify the technology for you.
The new program uses the same technique that Facebook uses to verify your identity. The program randomly asks applicants about a piece of information from their history, just like when Facebook asks you to identify pictures of your friends if you are locked out of your account.
The DCF program figures out what information to ask about by searching for public records associated with an applicant. The “algorithms” (a set of instructions to a computer) for searching these documents and matching them to an applicant are not really that “complex” in a technical sense. It works something like this:
1.The computer is told to “go find all records that match the set of information (name, phone number, social security number, address, etc.) provided by the applicant.”
2.The computer finds these documents and then ranks them by what documents look like the best match. This is kind of like how Google ranks your searches.
3.Another algorithm searches the best matching documents for predefined data fields (year, color, location) and generates a question to the applicant based on that information. For example, drawing from a birth certificate the question may be “What city were you born in?” Or from a car registration you could get “What color was your 2007 Honda Accord?”
OP-ED OF THE DAY: COMMON CORE STANDARDS CAN WORK FOR THE U.S.
Michael O’Sullivan, chief executive of Cambridge International Examinations, penned an op-ed in the Tampa Tribune showcasing the successes that CI has had using standards and curriculum similar to the Common Core for many years.
O’Sullivan writes, “Reflective of 50 states, America’s education system has been supporting 50 standards for learning, resulting in wide disparities in student proficiency across the country. This inconsistency may be one of the reasons the U.S. has fallen behind the international learning curve. As our economies globalize and the job market becomes increasingly competitive, education reform on a national scale has never been more important. The first step toward nationwide education reform in the U.S. is already underway. A collaboration of parents, lawmakers and education professionals, the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) provide an educational foundation designed to unite students under a common system of learning with clear expectations for student education and achievement as they progress from one level to the next. What makes this type of learning method so effective? To begin with, it starts with greater focus on “core” subjects, such as reading and mathematics, and allows educators more time to delve deeper into each new piece of material, like peeling away the layers of an onion…”
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BILL NELSON WON’T TAKE SIDES ON SYG via William March of the Tampa Tribune
Nelson wouldn’t take sides on whether Florida’s Stand Your Ground law ought to be repealed or whether the U.S. Department of Justice should intervene in the George Zimmerman-Trayvon Martin killing.
… Nelson said the controversial law, which expanded the circumstances under which a defendant can plead self-defense in a homicide case, “was not employed” in the Zimmerman trial, “so that’s not the issue.”
He said the Stand Your Ground law, like most criminal law, is the province of the state, not the federal government. But asked whether there should be a special session of the Legislature to reconsider the law or civil rights issues in Florida, he said, “I’ve got enough trouble trying to get things done in Washington. I’m not going to wade in on the state Legislature.”
STAND YOUR GROUND FOR VOTERS: POLS FIRED UP TO MAKE IT AN ISSUE IN 2014 via John Kennedy of the Palm Beach Post
Florida’s “stand your ground” law has emerged as a powerful political symbol in the wake of the George Zimmerman case, with Democratic-allied activists looking to carry the issue into next year’s elections as a sign of Republican leadership working to oppress minorities. Like the 2011 changes made to the state’s voting laws by Gov. Rick Scott and the GOP-led Legislature, organizations say the self-defense law mostly threatens poor, black and young Floridians.
But that said, recent polls suggest that most Americans favor having a ‘stand your ground’ law in their state, with 45% in favor, 32% opposed, and 22% undecided.
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JEFF BRANDES RETURNS FROM THE GREAT NORTHWEST, FILLED WITH IDEAS FOR MASS TRANSIT Full blog post here
Brandes traveled to the other corner of America — the Pacific Northwest — and came away with strong ideas on mass transportation issues at home.
The chair of the state Senate Transportation committee visited Portland, Oregon last week for a meeting of local legislators to learn about one of the most successful mass transit systems in the country. It provides residents a diverse collection transportation options, including light commuter rail, zones of limited automobile access, streetcars and buses.
For example, Portland limits the numbers of new parking spaces in downtown, in addition to actively promoting development that encourage the use of light rail.
Brandes returned from his visit with a few ideas about mass transit — what it would take to reduce the number of cars on the road, and how Floridians can pay for it.
Spurred by advances in automobile technology — fuel efficiency, hybrids and the like — gas tax revenues in Florida have been on the decline, while the number of vehicle miles traveled has increased.
“We really looked at how we would pay for transportation infrastructure in the future,” Brandes said. “We have a challenge in America. We have created an infrastructure based on fuel tax.”
To ensure the state has the resources for mass transit, improved and expanded roads, drivers might have to move towards usage fees, rather than a gas tax.
Not all of Oregon’s innovations will work for Florida, said Brandes, but some innovations might help change from paying by the gallon to paying by miles driven. They range from the basic (a flat user fee), to the sophisticated (installing devices in cars that could communicate driving data to determine charges).
“All that would be predicated on getting rid of the gas tax,” Brandes added. “Or get a credit for it.”
According to Brandes, in Pinellas County, one thing is certain; mass transit has to be more than just light rail. He feels there should also be a focus on alternatives, such as bus rapid transit and managed traffic lanes.
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DEMOCRATS OPEN REGISTRATION FOR THE 2103 STATE CONFERENCE AT DISNEY
The Florida Democratic Party’s 2013 State Conference is open for registration, with the theme “We Are Florida” (but really, the theme is the usual Bash On Scott). It will take place from October 25 – 27 in Orlando at Disney’s Yacht and Beach Club Resort. Find all details on the Conference website here.
SOMEONE’S ATTACKING HD 30 CANDIDATE BOB CORTES VERRRYYY EARLY See the mailer here
Arriving in House District 30 mailboxes today was what has to be the first attack-mailer of the 2014 election cycle.
The target? Bob Cortes, a businessman who served on the Longwood City Commission and eventually rose to deputy mayor, hoping to win the seat back for the Republicans from Democratic incumbent Karen Castor Dentel.
But before Cortes can face-off against Castor-Dentel, he must face Scott Sturgill, owner of Durable Safety Products and a member of the Seminole County Soil & Water Conservation.
So are Sturgill’s allies responsible for the mailer, which attempts to damage Cortes by highlighting his connection to Hans Hertell, the ex-ambassador to the Dominican Republic who has been implicated in a major drug investigation by the FBI.
Or are Castor Dentel’s Democratic friends behind the mailer? One political consultant familiar with the race said they would not put it past the Dems to attack Cortes now in order for Castor Dentel to have a better shot of facing Sturgill in the general election.
Who’s behind the mailer may not even be the most interesting question. That would be: Is this the earliest a negative mailer has been sent in a legislative race?
It is, after all, 470 days before Election Day.
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5 QUESTIONS FOR MARION HAMMER here, including:
Q: It’s said you’re in a class by yourself at getting your bills passed — what’s the secret of your success?
HAMMER: First of all, do you really expect me to give up trade secrets?
Being successful involves believing in what you’re doing, because if you don’t believe in it, you’re not going to care to the depths of which you need to care to get it done. You have to have focus. You have to do your research. You need to have your facts, and you have to believe in what you’re doing. People who don’t believe in what they’re doing rarely give it the dedication an issue deserves.
I’m not a hired gun. I am privileged to be paid to do a job that I love doing. And I am successful because I care, because the people with whom I work know that I care. They know that I’m going to tell them the truth, even if it hurts me, and that I’m not going to quit. So it’s from that backdrop that I approach every issue.
And if it’s important enough to start, it’s important enough to finish.
AIF ANNOUNCES DATES FOR 2014 HEALTH CARE SUMMIT
Mark your calendars for next January 29-31, 2014, to head to Orlando for the Foundation of Associated Industries of Florida’s 2014 Florida Health Care Affordability Summit. As we await to see what the future of Florida’s health care system holds, let’s welcome the opportunity to engage in discussion and hear how our health care thought and policy leaders are weighing in.
The summit will once again bring some of the most knowledgeable stakeholders in health care to the table – from experts on health plans, hospitals and providers, to our elected officials and some of Florida’s best employers – to participate in an open forum and continue the conversation on how we can make Florida healthier based on the guiding principle that quality health care should be affordable and accessible to all.
Details will be published here.
APPOINTED: Dr. Leonard L. Britten, Angela T. Sissine, Anthony J. Martini and Timothy S. Pyle, and the reappointment of Dr. Robert L. Perdomo III to the Board of Dentistry.
MORE APPOINTMENTS: William Johnson, Robert Campbell, Steve Capehart, Rodney Wickman, Duane E. De Freese, Randy Hanna, Ben F. Grzesik, Rick Matthews, Elli Hurst, Britt Sikes, Mike Tomas, Jennifer L. Grove, Dwayne E. Ingram, Alex Moseley, and Dr. Linda Sparks to the Board of Directors of Workforce Florida, Inc.
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY to former State Representative and Senator, now Pinellas County Commissioner Charlie Justice.
MUST-WATCH: The Whitehorse City Council put out a compelling ad to get you to watch meetings on cable access television.
