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538.com: Is Florida still a political swing state?

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From 538.com: I don’t know that I’d make too much of this Mason-Dixon poll in Florida which has very bad numbers for Democrats across the board — Mason-Dixon, although a strong pollster, has had a pretty significant red-leaning house effect for the past couple of cycles and there aren’t any recent trendlines to look at on the health care or Bill Nelson numbers. But, it would stand to reason that Obama’s 2012 strategy may not be able to bank on…

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538.com’s Nate Silver weighs in on Florida 2010: ‘Charlie Crist is not a good sharer’

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From Nate Silver of 538.com, the best political site you should be reading. Here are Charlie Crist’s favorability ratings among registered voters in Florida, according to the Quinnipiac poll. Crist’s favorability ratings are higher among independents than among Democrats or Republicans (although not by a statistically significant margin in the former case). That’s very unusual for a politician who does not actually call himself an independent. Still, although Crist’s favorability ratings with Republicans have declined some, they’re still pretty decent.…

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Nate Silver of 538.com upgrades competitiveness of Florida Senate race

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From Nate Silver of 538.com, perhaps the best political site you’re not reading: “The pace of Senate polling has slackened this month as pollsters have turned their attention to next Tuesday’s elections as well as the continuing fight over health care. My attention, likewise, has been concentrated on those other areas. But for the sake of continuity, a very brief Senate rankings update is in order as the clock ticks down on October. I am changing the status of only…

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In defense of Rush Limbaugh

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No, the headline is not sarcastic. No, I do not particularly care for the guy. Yes, Rush has said all other various and sundry sorts of racially inflammatory things. But there’s pretty compelling evidence a couple of particularly inflammatory quotes that have been attributed to Limbaugh on CNN and at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch are things he simply never said. There’s no audio file, there’s no YouTube, there’s no transcript — there’s no sourcing of any kind to speak of,…

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Sarah Palin: all tail, no head

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From 538.com: Sarah Palin’s political action committee — SarahPAC — raised $733,000 in the first half of the year and is set to push past $1 million in the wake of the recent attention she’s gotten herself. On the one hand, this isn’t that impressive. Mitt Romney, for instance, has raised twice as much. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Palin’s sometime rival who is now running for governor in Texas, raised nine times as much. For somebody with a political celebrity dwarfed…

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538: Polling and voting in Iran

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This morning, voting began in Iran’s tenth Presidential election, which pits incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against three Guardian Council approved challengers. The main contest is between the more conservative President Ahmadinejad, and former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who has billed himself as a moderate reformist. The two dark horse candidates, former Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Razaei and former Majlis (parliament) speaker Mehdi Karroubi, have each campaigned since the approval process ended on 20 May, but without making enough progress for…

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538.com: Charlie Crist second most popular Gov

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If you’re into politics, numbers, and the vicissitudes of public opinion, you’ll love Nate Silver’s new gubernatorial power ratings. He throws a couple oft-neglected factors into the mix to create an expected approval rating, which includes the state’s size and partisan leanings, as well as other, more standard metrics. Who’s the most popular governor in the land? A fairly well-informed observer might guess Jon Huntsman, Jr. of Utah (who won’t be a governor for much longer), Charlie Crist of Florida…

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