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Larry Sabato

Darryl Paulson: Will 2018 bring no change or a political tsunami?

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Sometimes political change comes slowly, one drop at a time. That was the 2016 Florida congressional election where Democrats gained a single seat, although the opportunities were everywhere. Sometimes elections result in a political tsunami, where the political landscape is fundamentally altered, and one party replaces the other party as the dominant political force. The 2010 and 2014 midterm elections created a tsunami where Republicans wiped out a substantial Democratic majority and won political control of the House. What will…

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Obama’s electoral legacy: After 8 years, we get a Donald Trump

in 2017/Top Headlines by

(Part 2 of the Obama legacy) With the inauguration of Donald Trump, it is a good time to review the electoral impact of eight years of the Obama White House. One of the impacts is the election of Trump which surprised the entire political universe. Whatever Obama may have achieved in public policy, it is that policy which is in great part responsible for setting “the post-World War II record for losses by the White House party,” according to Larry…

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Darryl Paulson: Getting schooled on the Electoral College

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

Going into the 2016 presidential election, virtually all political pundits and pollsters projected an easy victory for Hillary Clinton. Several of the most respected pollsters gave Clinton an 85 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump. Highly respected presidential scholar Larry Sabato projected that Clinton would win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191. As we now know, Trump won 290 electoral votes to 232 for Clinton with Michigan’s 16 electoral votes still undecided. Although Trump won the electoral majority and the…

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Postcard from the center, which didn’t hold

in 2017/Top Headlines by

It’s Morning After in America, and the recriminations are well underway. Even with a crappy crystal ball like Larry Sabato‘s, you can predict the Democrats will assemble an Autopsy Committee like the one the Republicans did in 2012. Old habits die hard. Bleary-eyed pundits, pollsters, pols, and political reporters are crying into their beers and Bloody Marys on Twitter and on national television. They’re plenty worried about their credibility, and their fat paychecks, not necessarily in that order. The cluelessness…

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Report: Hillary Clinton gets an Electoral College boost

in Statewide by

Hillary Clinton is gaining ground in the Electoral College. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its ratings Monday, and all of the changes favor Democrats. The ratings update, which came one day after the second presidential debate, “shows Clinton mildly improving on (President Barack) Obama’s 332 electoral votes from 2012,” according to the team at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The updated map shows Clinton carrying all of the Obama states except for Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. However, the team notes…

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Mitch Perry Report for 4.1.16 – Hillary Clinton’s Bob Dole moment

in The Bay and the 'Burg/Top Headlines by

Hillary Clinton had what I’m going to call her “Bob Dole moment” in the 2016 campaign Thursday in Purchase, New York, when she grew visibly angry when questioned by a Greenpeace activist about donations to her campaign from the fossil fuel industry. The activist, Eva Resnick-Day, asked Clinton whether she would reject fossil fuel money in the future. “I am so sick – I am so sick of the Sanders campaign lying about me. I’m sick of it!” Well, alright then.…

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Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball portends a potential Democratic blowout presidential election

in 2017/Top Headlines by

University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato latest “Crystal Ball” prediction of the 2016 presidential election spells gloom for the Republican Party this November. The longtime political analyst is predicting that if it’s a Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump matchup, it will be an electoral college blowout, 347-191. Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a weekly online political newsletter and website that analyzes American politics. In the new column, written by Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, the authors acknowledge that while it’s an “extra-early, ridiculously…

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